AC Milan return to the San Siro this weekend to face fifth-placed Lazio. Sergio Conceicao’s side have a chance to close the gap on the Rome club with a victory in this six-pointer. Bettors looking to back Milan can take advantage of special offers using a 1xBet Promo Code.
The Rossoneri handed the advantage to their rivals Juventus and Lazio after defeat in Turin last weekend. Prior to this, they had won three of their previous four league games, so Conceicao hopes it was just a minor blip.
Milan are unbeaten in their last four competitive meetings with Lazio. Since Conceicao embarked on a January squad overhaul, the team have only tasted defeat twice in the league.
Lazio have also lost just twice in 2025, one of which was a painful 2-0 defeat to Roma in the Rome derby. They are unbeaten in four games at present but were held to a frustrating goalless draw at second-bottom Venezia last weekend.
Marco Baroni’s men are always entertaining, having scored 47 goals in 26 Serie A games. They have only drawn once away from the Stadio Olimpico this season, which suggests they don’t adopt a safety-first approach on their travels.
AC Milan Expected Lineup: Maignan; Jimenez, Hernandez, Pavlovic, Tomori, Musah, Fofana, Reijnders, Pulisic, Leao, Gimenez
Lazio Expected Lineup: Provedel; Marusic, Tavares, Gila, Romagnoli, Guendouzi, Rovella, Isaksen, Zaccagni, Pedro, Castellanos
Santiago Gimenez has wasted no time settling into life at Milan. The Mexican international has scored two goals in his first three Serie A appearances, providing a much-needed focal point for Conceicao’s side. His instant impact has made him a popular choice for bettors on online betting sites.
Gimenez arrives in fine goalscoring form, having scored seven goals in 11 Eredivisie appearances for Feyenoord this season. He also scored 23 goals in 30 appearances in the 2023/24 campaign in Rotterdam.
That’s why 1xBet’s odds of 2.75 for Gimenez to score anytime against Lazio come as a surprise. This suggests a probability of just over 36% for him to score. However, his goalscoring probability in the last two seasons has been 63% (24/25) and 76% (23/24).
With two goals in three games for the Rossoneri, Gimenez has already surpassed his goalscoring rate at Feyenoord this season. This makes him the standout value pick among our three AC Milan vs Lazio predictions this weekend.
AC Milan have scored first in 62% of their home games this season. They have also scored in the first half more than every other game (54%) at the San Siro this campaign.
Sergio Conceicao’s side have rarely trailed on home soil. They have been behind for only 14% of the time played, which is significantly lower than the 22% league average for home teams.
Although only 27% of Lazio’s goals on the road have been conceded in the first 45 minutes of matches, Milan have scored almost two-thirds (65%) of their home goals in the first period. That is why we are backing the Rossoneri to open the scoring in this one, likely between the 31st and 45th minute.
Hosts to Bounce Back from Torino Nightmare
The 2-1 defeat at Torino was a tough blow for Conceicao’s side. After levelling up the contest with 16 minutes to play, Milan seemed set to push for all three points. However, Torino had other ideas, regaining the lead just two minutes later and managing to hold on for a valuable victory.
Historically speaking, teams typically needed 69-70 points to secure Champions League qualification in Serie A. This means Milan would need to win ten of their last 13 matches or win nine and draw three to stand a chance of playing in Europe’s elite club competition next season.
Milan have lost just once in 13 home games this season, winning six and drawing six. Given that a win here would reduce Lazio’s points advantage, we are backing the Rossoneri to have the motivation to get the job done. It’s possible that England right-back Kyle Walker will be fit enough to feature this weekend, which would give them additional attacking impetus down the right flank.