AC Milan are set to face a tough challenge against AS Roma, with a 1-0 scoreline expected.
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After conceding multiple goals in their opening three matches of the season, AC Milan have now kept a clean sheet in eight of their previous 13 fixtures. Their home form at the San Siro has been incredibly strong.
In contrast, Roma’s away record is one of the worst in Serie A. Only two teams have failed to win when playing away from home in Serie A this campaign – Claudio Ranieri’s Roma are one of them.
However, an injury crisis is looming for Paulo Fonseca’s AC Milan side, with Christian Pulisic, among others, potentially unavailable for AS Roma’s visit. Following a convincing 6-0 win over Parma, can Claudio Ranieri mastermind another much-needed win when AS Roma travel to Milan?
AC Milan:
Maignan – Emerson, Gabbia, Thiaw, Jimenez – Fofana, Terraciano – Chukwueze, Reijnders, Hernandez – Abraham
AS Roma:
Svilar – Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka – Saelemaekers, Paredes, Kone, Angelino – Dybala, El Shaarawy; Dovbyk
AC Milan’s performance is unpredictable from one week to the next, so it’s almost impossible to make their AC Milan vs AS Roma predictions. Paulo Fonseca has struggled to find the right balance between attack and defence. The growing injury list, compounded by Rafael Leao’s early exit against Hellas Verona, has only worsened Fonseca’s situation in Milan.
The Portuguese winger has returned to form in recent weeks. Unfortunately for the Rossoneri, Leao is sidelined alongside Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Noah Ofakor, Luka Jovic, Alvaro Morata, and Ismael Bennacer. The long list of absentees suggests that Milan might find the busy upcoming fixture schedule challenging to navigate.
The home side have kept six clean sheets in eight games at the San Siro this season. Milan have conceded the fewest expected goals against, with just 4.50 xGA. AS Roma arrive in Milan, having scored 16 goals in their previous five games, so the hosts will aim to stay compact.
With several of AC Milan’s key players missing, Fonseca will be happy with a draw. If the score is level going into the second half, both sides might choose to sit back and limit their opponent’s chances.
Roma’s recent goalscoring run in both the Serie A and the Coppa Italia have likely raised morale in Rome. However, the quality of their opponents must be taken into account. Roma should be beating teams like Lecce, Sampdoria, Parma and Braga.
The only tough match in their recent five away games was against Como, where Roma fell to a 2-0 defeat. They conceded 18 shots in that game, whilst only registering 0.34 xG.
Considering that AC Milan’s attacking power is weakened by injuries and Roma are struggling away from home, this might be another match where they fail to score. Only Roma and Venezia have failed to win an away fixture in Serie A this season. Only Lecce (2) have scored fewer goals away from home than Roma’s 5.
The prospect of playing at the San Siro, one of the most notorious stadiums in Italy, will certainly add pressure. The available data suggests that the away side might struggle once again.
This match features a home team regularly overseeing clean sheets and an away team struggling to create high-quality goalscoring chances. Considering the long injury list in attacking areas and the strong home side, this fixture could easily fall under the 2.5-goal line.
Away from home, 75% of Roma’s Serie A fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals, making it a favorable outcome for punters. While 50% of AC Milan’s home games may not be as appealing, they have restricted opponents to just 0.56 xGA per 90.
That’s the best record in this division, making the AC Milan vs AS Roma predictions for under 2.5 goals and both teams to score – no, two appealing angles.