The trade deadline came and went this past Monday and . No two teams were more active than the and . The Mets sold hard and traded several veterans for 11 total prospects. The Blue Jays toed the line between buying () and selling (, ).
“Our goal is to move the organization forward in the best way possible,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns . “To ensure that we have a far better season and each season beyond.”
The Mets are well out of the postseason race at 48-66. The Blue Jays, at 53-61, are only four games behind the third wild-card spot in the woebegone American League, though there are six teams ahead of them in the standings. It’s really hard to jump that many teams, even with 48 games to play. Toronto’s front office recognized that and acted accordingly at the deadline.
There are still almost eight weeks of baseball to play this season and the Mets and Blue Jays will use those eight weeks to audition young players and figure out who can be part of next year’s team, when they hope to contend. It’s also eight weeks to lose games, which, in the messed-up modern sports world, can be a positive for teams out of the race.
Here are two reasons the Mets, Blue Jays, and other teams out of the race have an incentive to lose as many games as possible down the stretch, even if it runs counter to the spirit of competition.
The more you lose, the better your draft lottery odds. Simple as that. The top six picks in the amateur draft are set via lottery each year, and all 18 non-postseason teams have a chance at the No. 1 pick. The worst teams have the best odds, though. These were the No. 1 pick odds for the teams with baseball’s 10 worst records a year ago:
30th
27.73%
25th
4.54%
29th
22.18%
24th
3.03%
28th
16.81%
23rd
2.35%
27th
9.24%
22nd
1.85%
26th
6.55%
21st
1.51%
The odds change slightly each year because some teams are ineligible for the lottery for various reasons (you can only pick inside the top six so many consecutive years, etc.), but those were last year’s odds, just to give you an idea of what they look like.
The Blue Jays and Mets currently have the 24th- and 25th-best records in baseball, respectively. That would give them 3.03% and 4.54% odds for the No. 1 pick, again respectively, using last year’s lottery odds. There is more to it than just the No. 1 pick, too. The worse your record, the better your odds for the Nos. 2-6 picks as well (the remaining lottery picks).
MLB’s draft is not like the NBA’s or NFL’s or NHL’s, where a high first-round pick will step right into your lineup the next year and be counted on to make a difference. The end result is the same, though. The more you lose, the better your lottery odds, and the better chance you have to access the best amateur talent available.
This is a big one and it ties back to the draft lottery. Teams that exceed the third competitive balance tax penalty threshold, which is $284 million this year, have their next year’s top pick moved back 10 spots as part of the penalties. That applied to both the Blue Jays and Mets last season, and it will apply again this season.
Current estimates have five teams, including the Blue Jays and Mets, over the $284 million third CBT penalty threshold. Here are the top CBT payrolls in baseball (via ):
$417M
New York Mets
$360M
$336M
$325M
Toronto Blue Jays
$318M
$267M
Realistically, the Mets and Blue Jays cannot duck under the $284 million threshold to avoid the 10-pick penalty. It’s not possible to shed that much salary the rest of the season, especially after the trade deadline. It’s literally impossible, in fact. Teams can no longer trade away salary, and if you release a player, his salary still counts toward your CBT payroll.
Anyway, the Blue Jays and Mets will again get hit with the 10-pick penalty for next year’s draft. There is a catch, though. If a team in the CBT penalty gets a lottery pick (Nos. 1-6), the 10-pick penalty applies to their second pick, not their first. You get to keep your top-six lottery pick if you get one. Pushing a second-rounder back 10 spots is nothing, really. The first-rounder hurts significantly more.
So, the more the Blue Jays and Mets lose, the better their lottery odds, and the more likely it is that their first-round pick won’t be pushed back 10 spots due to CBT penalties. If the lottery balls don’t go their way, it’s a double whammy. They don’t get the high top-six pick and their first-rounder then gets pushed back. The more they lose, the less likely it is that happens.
The above is based on the current collective bargaining agreement, which expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. Barring a surprise agreement (possible, but unlikely), MLB will lock out the players at that time. Lockout or no lockout, though, the lottery and CBT are subject to change in the next CBA. .
The uncertainty heading into the next CBA is why the Blue Jays and Mets and every other team should honor the game and play to win every night, rather than tank for draft lottery odds. Which they’ll do, I’m sure. Front offices tank, not players. The players are playing for their jobs and livelihoods, remember. Many of them won’t be around when that lottery pick reaches the show.
