The is officially here.
The final week of regular-season play ended Sunday as all 30 teams were in action to cap the 82-game campaign. Some top seeds sweetened an already dominant run, while bottom-dwelling teams completed their last efforts to tank for the May 10 draft lottery.
Now, there are officially 20 teams set and seeded to compete for a chance to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June. The play-in tournament begins Tuesday, as four teams from each conference face off for the last two spots in the playoffs to play against the No. 1 and 2 seeds.
Our NBA insiders break down all 20 postseason-bound teams, their first-round and play-in matchups, biggest questions and key players to watch throughout the run to the 2026 Finals.
Note: Odds for 2026 NBA playoffs provided by DraftKings.
Jump to a team:
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Round 1 matchup: No. 8 seed
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 38.6%
NBA title odds: +2200
What to watch for in Round 1:
One of the best seasons in franchise history was powered by the kind of defense, intensity and physicality that have been calling cards of nearly every great Detroit team. But will the East’s top seed generate enough offense to reach its first Finals since 2005? has realized his potential as the 2021 No. 1 draft pick, but the options behind him are largely unproven. Whoever emerges from the play-in tournament with the 8-seed will test the Pistons to keep up on the scoreboard. — Jamal Collier
One big question for the postseason:
Is Cunningham fully healthy? The Pistons didn’t miss a beat near the end of the regular season, wrapping up the best record in the conference without their star player. Cunningham shook off some rust with two games last week, but the chances of a deep playoff run hinge on how he bounces back from . Despite falling short of the 65-game threshold, Cunningham was one of the best players in the league this season and looked like a lock for All-NBA. Detroit needs Cunningham at that level. — Collier
Player who can swing the first round:
Cunningham. I looked at how much teams would fall if they were without their best player, and the Pistons would drop only to fourth. But a top player returning after injury has a chance of clunkiness. The Pistons got Cunningham back from a collapsed lung last Wednesday in a game against a tanking team, and he played well. But tankers won’t be the test. When the Pistons face a team in lockdown defense mode, that’s when Cunningham must avoid forcing things and keep defending on the other end. — Dean Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They reach the second round. It would seem as if a conference finals appearance would be the minimum goal, but it’s important to note that this team is just two seasons removed from a disastrous 14-win campaign. In 2024, the Thunder tied for the best record in the West with 57 wins, only to get knocked out by the Mavericks in the conference semis. Detroit chose not to make any major swings at the trade deadline, in part due to not wanting to skip steps or place the burden of title expectations on a rising young team. — Vincent Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Pistons finished the regular season with 10 players averaging seven-plus points per game. That’s tied with the 1962-63 Syracuse Nationals for the most in NBA history.
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Round 1 matchup: No. 7 seed
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 29.2%
NBA title odds: +550
What to watch for in Round 1:
How will Boston’s center rotation fare? and have never been relied upon to be significant postseason contributors, and veteran has never played past the first round. If Boston is to make the deep playoff run it expects, this frontcourt group will be tested. — Tim Bontemps
One big question for the postseason:
What will look like? It has already been a remarkable comeback for him to be playing less than a year after tearing an Achilles — and quickly winning a conference Player of the Week award, to boot. But for Boston to be , Tatum will need to return to something closer to his pre-injury form. –– Bontemps
Player who can swing the first round:
. The Celtics are a machine that adapts to what the opponent does, but if there’s a player whose performance can be volatile, it’s Pritchard. He has been among the 30 most inconsistent players this season, posting 23 good games and 17 bad ones (plus 37 average efforts). If the Celtics face the ferocious starting unit in Charlotte, they can’t afford a Pritchard stinker: Boston’s biggest loss of the season was to the Hornets on March 4, when Pritchard had his worst game. — Dean Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They reach the conference finals. In some ways, Tatum’s return has Boston playing with house money. He came back sooner than expected and looks like a reasonable version of himself while swapping lead positions with MVP contender . Getting knocked out in the second round last season as defending champions, and then being able to come back and advance to top-two status in what was thought to be a “gap year” would constitute a massive win for the franchise. But going further is always on the board in the East. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Celtics allowed 39.8 points per game in the paint — the fewest in a season since the 2019-20 Bucks (38.7).
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Round 1 matchup:
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 18.5%
NBA title odds: +1800
What to watch for in Round 1:
Whether the Knicks can take care of business early and get enough rest for a potential rematch with the Celtics. That would mean continuing the trend of trusting his teammates such as and, more importantly, . Everything the Knicks have done since last season ended has been about leading to this moment. Firing Tom Thibodeau. Hiring Mike Brown. Not going all-in with a trade offer for . Treating the first round with the appropriate seriousness after having lulls in concentration this season would show that those decisions were worth it — for now. — Goodwill
One big question for the postseason:
Can Towns be the true second option New York needs? He has had a more productive second half of the season but has needed to find his offense off the glass rather than getting everything run through him. Towns and Brunson have found chemistry lately, but the pressure is greater on Towns than on any star-level player this postseason. — Goodwill
Player who can swing the first round:
. The Knicks have been very good against bad teams and middling against good teams. Who declines the most? It’s Robinson, and it’s on both sides of the ball. The good defenses defend him well, and they are also willing to foul him and put him on the line, where his sub-50% mark means “hack-a-Mitchell” is in play from tipoff. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They reach the NBA Finals. If it weren’t obvious, Knicks owner James Dolan laid out the gauntlet . Making the conference finals was just good enough to get Thibodeau fired. Beating Boston, Detroit, Cleveland or anyone else is the bare minimum. The Knicks were built to win this season, and there could be consequences on some level if they came up short again. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Knicks have a plus-10.6 PPG differential at home this season, second in the NBA behind the Thunder (12.9).
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Round 1 matchup:
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 5.1%
NBA title odds: +1600
What to watch for in Round 1:
This Cavs team will arguably provide his best chance to redeem his previous playoff disappointments, and the opening round will be the first window into how he handles it. Harden’s career of playoff shortcomings will not be assuaged no matter whom Cleveland plays in the opening series, but it’ll be the first opportunity to see this team under real pressure. How will Harden operate on a team for which he doesn’t have to handle much of the scoring burden, and how will he and work on the floor together, especially at the end of games? — Collier
One big question for the postseason:
Did the Cavs’ big four have enough time to jell? Thanks to a combination of ill-timed injuries, the quartet of Mitchell, Harden, and entered the final week of the regular season having played six games and 76 total minutes together. The good news for the Cavs is that they are outscoring opponents by 35 points during those minutes, but it’s a small sample for Cleveland’s best players before they have to win on a playoff stage. — Collier
Player who can swing the first round:
Harden. The key for Cleveland is the counter to Mitchell, who dictates winning and losing so much for the Cavs that when he’s down, the whole team is down. When the Cavs lost in the second round last year, he had a couple of bad games and his teammates couldn’t pick him up. Their key player in this postseason could be Harden, Allen or Mobley, but they need one of them to provide that counter. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They reach the conference finals. The Cavaliers haven’t made it that far without since 1992, and current franchise star Mitchell has never advanced past the second round. Acquiring Harden before the trade deadline only heightened expectations. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Cavaliers had 14 wins this season when they trailed entering the fourth quarter — the most by any team.
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Round 1 matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.5%
NBA title odds: +25000
What to watch for in Round 1:
Toronto was drawing dead against the Knicks, having lost all five games against New York this season, including on Friday night. But thanks to Orlando losing to Boston, the Raptors instead will face the Cavs, who they swept in their season series. It’s important to note that all of those games were played before Nov. 24, but securing a series against Cleveland was a significant win for the Raptors.
One big question for the postseason:
Is ready for the spotlight? After his cameo role as a rookie, this is the first chance for Barnes to be the leading man on a playoff team. How will he take on that challenge, and can he lead Toronto to a first-round upset? — Bontemps
Player who can swing the first round:
. Between Halloween and Thanksgiving, the Raptors went 13-1. What happened in that stretch? They played bad teams — very bad teams. These Raptors do well against bad teams. Against good teams, has been bad, has been worse, Walter has been the worst. One of those guys, probably two, needs to actually show up if the Raptors are going to win a series. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They put a scare into one of the giants. It doesn’t seem as if the Raptors are knocking on the door of truly bothering the upper echelon of the East, at least not in the way the NBA world views Atlanta or even the red-hot Hornets. Since Toronto’s 12-3 December, it has been a .500 outfit the rest of the way. Making someone sweat in the opening round with a long, rangy defense could put a bow on a season nobody should feel bad about in the North. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Raptors led the NBA in fast-break points per game (18.8) and allowed the second-fewest (12.6). Their plus-6.2 PPG differential on fast breaks is the best by a team since 2018-19.
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Round 1 matchup: New York Knicks
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.4%
NBA title odds: +13000
What to watch for in Round 1:
After took the controls while was injured, the Hawks pivoted and traded Young and . Following a 20-25 start, Atlanta went 25-10 over the next 35 games, playing and moving the ball the way Quin Snyder wants. Johnson is a star in the making. has been one of the best pickups of the offseason, and he and provide deep playoff experience, having each reached the Western Conference finals. hopes to pick up where he left off after averaging 20.8 points for the Warriors in the second round against Minnesota last postseason after was injured. — Ohm Youngmisuk
One big question for the postseason:
Can Johnson take his game to the next level? The do-it-all forward emerged this season into an All-Star. Now he returns to the postseason for the first time since 2023, but this time as the Hawks’ go-to guy. This will be a priceless experience for the 24-year-old’s growth as he tests his triple-double skills against a Knicks defense fixated on him. Johnson got a little taste of facing playoff-tested teams when he shot a combined 12-for-35 and fouled out once in two losses last week to the Knicks and Cavaliers. Things will only get harder from here, but this is the next step for Johnson’s ascendence. — Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
Alexander-Walker. Jalen Johnson is the Hawks’ top guy, but Alexander-Walker is their second-best player. He has the second-most threshold wins for the Hawks, which is when his performance was enough to carry the team to a win. It’s what he doesn’t do that is particularly relevant for Atlanta — perform in the clutch. Johnson has been good, but defenses know that and likely will force someone else, like Alexander-Walker, to beat them. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They pulled off a first-round upset. The Hawks were a sleeper contender pick before the season began, when they still rostered Trae Young. But it wasn’t until after trading Young and Kristaps Porzingis that they were able to deploy coach Quin Snyder’s full game plan — Atlanta went 19-5 after the break behind elite shot-making and havoc on defense. It won’t be easy or even likely, but given they failed to live up to lofty preseason expectations, a first-round triumph would be a significant next step for the young roster. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Hawks led the NBA with 30.2 assists per game, the most in a season in franchise history. They generated 79.1 PPG from their assists, a league-best, according to GeniusIQ.
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Play-in matchup: Orlando Magic
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1%
NBA title odds: +17000
What to watch in the play-in:
A year ago, the 76ers entered the season with championship expectations, only to spectacularly crash and burn. This year, they had almost no expectations, and yet managed to make it into the playoffs, and — at least in theory — have the pieces to make a deep playoff run in a wide-open Eastern Conference. — Bontemps
One big question for the postseason:
Can Philadelphia stay healthy? For a team that’s constantly dealing with one health issue after another, especially with , any chance of being a factor in the playoffs will come down to whether the 76ers can get their team on the floor. — Bontemps
Player who can swing the first round:
. Most of the 76ers’ team performance is additive. Add Maxey, and they get plus-2.3 net points per game toward winning. Add , they get plus-1.7. Joel Embiid adds plus-2.1. A team wants to spend all year building up the chemistry across those guys, so it’s more than additive. Most of this roster spent all year eating popcorn and watching Maxey cook. He can’t carry these guys too far on his own. He’s special and fun to watch, but if he gets stopped, the Sixers get stopped. Just adding George and Embiid to Maxey makes them good, but it’s essentially Maxey’s job to lead the team now, which means ensuring the chemistry makes it more than additive. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
At this point, getting through the play-in would constitute something salvageable for the 76ers. With Joel Embiid’s emergency appendectomy putting his postseason status in danger, it’s impossible to place real expectations on this team. It’s been a year full of fits, starts and glimpses of potential, but it’s unfair to expect Maxey to carry this team into the first round by himself. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The 76ers were 11-10 when Embiid, George and Maxey all played this season. Together, they had a plus-1.6 PPG differential.
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Play-in matchup:
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.4%
NBA title odds: +35000
What to watch in the play-in:
It’s been a disappointingly inconsistent season for the Magic, who entered the preseason with huge hopes of contending in the East following the trade for . But Orlando once again battled injuries, with missing over half the season. The Magic were supposed to be a defensive juggernaut, but they look disinterested at times this season. Getting Wagner and back has been huge, and Orlando will look to salvage a frustrating season by doing what it was built to do — win in the postseason. In order to do that, they’ll have to win in Philly first. — Youngmisuk
One big question for the postseason:
Can , Wagner and Bane be the formidable trio the Magic envisioned? The Magic invested three unprotected first-round picks and a first-round pick swap in Bane to provide the perimeter shooting, leadership and postseason experience the Magic desperately need. Orlando did not envision fighting to get out of the play-in. Can the Magic show that Banchero and Wagner can thrive and have room to operate in a playoff environment with Bane on the perimeter to complement an elite defense? Or will Orlando fizzle out, forcing the Magic front office to consider this offseason how to get this East contender back on track? — Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
Wagner. He took about five games to get used to carrying the Magic when Paulo Banchero went down early last season. When he has come back from injury this season, it has also taken him . Wagner really needs to be right if Orlando is going to go anywhere — besides on a fishing boat with Kenny Smith. –– Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They reach the second round. This is not a team playing with house money. They rightfully identified long-range shot-making as a problem last season, and acquired Desmond Bane for the not-so-low price of four first-round picks. Getting out the play-in, when the expectations were for Orlando to be far clear of it, may not be enough. There’s speculation about the future of important people in Orlando, and perhaps only first-round upset can change the fortunes. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Magic have 18 wins in games they trailed by 10 points or more, tied with the Cavaliers for most in the NBA this season.
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Play-in matchup:
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 5.3%
NBA title odds: +17000
What to watch in the play-in:
The Hornets enter the play-in as one of the hottest and most dangerous teams. Charlotte was 11-23 on Jan. 2 and then won 32 of the next 45 games. The Hornets have to get out of the play-in in order to snap their nine-year playoff drought – the longest current streak in the NBA. But they’ll be looking to make some noise with a group that has grown confident with convincing wins over the Thunder, Celtics, Lakers, Nuggets and Knicks, among other playoff teams. They play fast, are fearless and are determined to change the narrative of this being the same old Hornets team of the past decade. — Youngmisuk
One big question for the postseason:
Can and rookie sensation continue to light it up? Postseason basketball is a whole different monster and defenses will be focused on getting physical and taking away all of the Hornets’ screen actions that have worked tremendously this season. Ball is having the best season of his career, playing fewer minutes and getting up fewer shots. He wants to prove he can win in the playoffs and will have to play under control, minimize mistakes and turnovers and hold his own defensively. Kon Knueppel will have to figure out how to beat a playoff defense determined to limit the Hornets’ 3s. And most importantly, Charlotte’s version of the Splash Brothers will have to help the Hornets be much better in clutch time, something they struggled with this season. — Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
. Miller can have some terrible games and some great games; by metrics, he is the most inconsistent Hornet. Charlotte, facing a high seed in the first round, needs a wild card like Miller, who can scare the favorites into changing their game plan. But the Hornets also likely will want to get ahead and stay ahead. They have the worst clutch record of any potential playoff team. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
It already should be. The Hornets have been a second-half surprise, vaulting themselves from 12 games under .500 to one of the most potent offenses in the NBA in the new year, scoring 120.8 points per 100 possessions post January. But nobody expected them to be in this playoff puzzle, so whatever Ball, Knueppel and Co. accomplish in the postseason is a bonus and a great building block for next season. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: When the Hornets win, they win big. Their plus-18.3 average scoring margin in wins is the best in a season in NBA history.
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Play-in matchup: Charlotte Hornets
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1%
NBA title odds: +70000
What to watch in the play-in:
Even with long gone, the Heat have endured a roller coaster season. Miami’s offense opened the season looking explosive, only to hover slightly above .500 in late February. They won seven straight and watched detonate for 83 points in early March before dropping 10 of the next 13. Miami’s defense has sputtered, surrendering 120 or more points 13 times since Mar. 6. — Youngmisuk
One big question for the postseason:
Can Erik Spoelstra work his postseason magic again? Miami has advanced out of three consecutive play-ins. Despite a maddeningly inconsistent season, the Heat will have the confidence of knowing they can claw their way out of the play-in. But Spoelstra will need a healthy and to hum from the perimeter with Adebayo doing a little bit of everything and shoring up that Heat defense. And if they do find a way to get out of the play-in, the Heat will be looking to redeem themselves for last year’s embarrassing first-round pummeling at the hands of the Cavs. — Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
Adebayo. Miami made a farce of its first-round series a year ago, getting swept by the Cavs and losing the last two games by an average of 46 points. For organizational pride, they cannot do that again. The player most in charge of that is Adebayo, who brought a lot of pride with his 83-point game last month. The Heat need him to do something harder than 83 points: make everyone better in order to match the top seed they’ll face. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
They advance out of the play-in again. The standard for the Heat franchise, in terms of verbiage, is competing for championships. But they’ve turned the play-in tournament into the Heat Invitational the last three seasons. Last year they were noncompetitive against the Cavaliers in the first round, getting outscored by a combined 92 points in Games 3 and 4. Securing the 8-seed and giving Detroit a series would be optimal, for the short-term. — Goodwill
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Stat to know: The Heat led the NBA in pace this season. In the previous six seasons, they finished in the bottom five in the league.
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Round 1 matchup: No. 8 seed
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 61.9%
NBA title odds: +110
What to watch for in Round 1:
Regardless of who ends up as the No. 8 seed, the Thunder will be heavy favorites in the first round. Oklahoma City benefited from busting out the brooms in the first round last season, getting eight days in between series after sweeping the . For a team that dealt with so many injuries throughout the season, reducing wear and tear should be a motivating factor for the Thunder. — Tim MacMahon
One big question for the postseason:
Can perform as the the Thunder need alongside Gilgeous-Alexander?
Williams, whose 40-point performance in Game 5 of the NBA Finals last season ranks as the most important individual outing in franchise playoff history, has endured a frustrating season due to a lengthy recovery from offseason wrist surgery and a recurring hamstring strain. He used the last few weeks of the regular season to after returning from an extended absence. — MacMahon
Player who can swing the first round:
. The Thunder bench adds as many net points per game as half the starting units in the league. Two of the starting units it beats are Phoenix and Golden State, so if OKC faces one of those teams, you could say its bench was enough.
If the Thunder face the Clippers, though, they’ll need a starter or two. can rescue them, but in this first round, let’s say Holmgren should help carry them. He almost did in last year’s first round. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
The Thunder’s standard is now incredibly high. They have been the league’s best team for a solid 18 straight months. This year, they had several role players solidify their roles and their value, but especially , who averaged career highs across the board as OKC dealt with injuries throughout the season. Because of their depth, they have demonstrated an ability to play a number of different styles, dominate the clutch and rely on numerous players. It’s not a championship or break-up-the-core. But it is championship or failure. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Thunder started strong and finished strong — started the season 24-1 and finished the season 19-1.
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Round 1 matchup: No. 7 seed
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 30.7%
NBA title odds: +500
What to watch for in Round 1:
suffered a left rib contusion on Apr. 6, and it’s unknown how the injury might affect him against increased physicality in the postseason. While the injury appears to be relatively minor, Wembanyama will likely have to deal with a certain level of pain.
How will that affect his shot and mobility? Opposing teams saw success imposing increased physicality against the 22-year-old Frenchman in the regular season, so the Spurs should expect the same in the first round. — Michael C. Wright
One big question for the postseason:
Can the inexperienced Spurs control the pace? San Antonio stymied opponents during the regular season with a breakneck pace of play that showcased the club’s youth, speed and athleticism. In the postseason, and becomes more of a halfcourt slugfest. Can the inexperienced Spurs consistently execute in the halfcourt over 48 minutes in these high-stakes outings? — Wright
Player who can swing the first round:
. Last year, went into the playoffs for Cleveland after a breakout regular season, then he had a major dud in the second round. For the Spurs, Champagnie has been so good, with and without Wemby on the court, providing a stabilizing presence… something Jerome did for the Cavs last year. I think Champagnie is pretty tough, so I believe he will come through in the first round and make it easy, but I didn’t see Jerome’s flop coming last year. –– Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
The Spurs are already there. Wembanyama has had a breakout season, and showed how, at 22, he’s elevated his two-way game to an MVP level. , at 21, has already developed into one of the league’s best defensive guards; will be on the All-Rookie team; may win Sixth Man of the Year; and Mitch Johnson has demonstrated he’s worthy of the coaching job. Sure, you can say they have to win X playoff games or X rounds, but this postseason is a freeroll. They’ve hit their benchmarks. Expectations will be coming for them in the coming years either way. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Spurs are on pace to have the fourth-best winning percentage after the All-Star break behind the 2025-26 Thunder, 1996-97 Jazz and 2012-13 Heat (since the first All-Star Game was first played in 1951).
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Round 1 matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 4.0%
NBA title odds: +950
What to watch for in Round 1:
This is a rematch of the Nuggets’ seven-game series loss in the 2024 West semifinals, when Denver’s usually dominant offense sputtered, scoring under triple digits in all four losses to the Wolves. , who just had his best regular season yet, can get some retribution for what was arguably his worst playoff series. Murray averaged 18.4 points on 40.3% shooting in those seven games, including 3-of-18 and 4-of-18 outings in a couple of the losses. — MacMahon
One big question for the postseason:
Can stay healthy? Gordon, who has dealt with a series of calf and hamstring strains over the last two seasons, isn’t just a glue guy. He’s the duct tape to Denver’s defense. The Nuggets will especially need Gordon to guard if they run into the Spurs. — MacMahon
Player who can swing the first round:
Gordon. The Nuggets have played only slightly better at home than on the road this season. In Denver, you have to take advantage of the altitude. So who isn’t exploiting it? Gordon.
He was Denver’s hero in the playoffs a year ago, but he has struggled with injuries and thin air this season, playing 2.1 Net Points per game worse at home than on the road. The Nuggets’ first-round series with home court advantage could be very competitive, and they need him to be better. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
The Nuggets could make a case that they could’ve won each of the last three titles and that winning one of the three was the bare minimum. That said, given the depth and ceilings of the Thunder and Spurs, they will be underdogs to make a deep run this year. So if they make it to a conference finals and have a puncher’s chance, they will have at least stolen a series after letting two slip through their fingers. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Nuggets are the first team in NBA history to have multiple players with at least 1,500 points and 500 assists in the same season (Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray)
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Round 1 matchup: Houston Rockets
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.1%
NBA title odds: +25000
What to watch for in Round 1:
The Lakers stabilized to a certain degree to close out the regular season with three straight wins after initially reeling from the and injuries. shifted back to the No. 1 option; was asked to be an on-ball initiator; and returned from his lengthy ankle injury absence. With homecourt advantage secured and five days off before Houston comes to town for Game 1, the Lakers will try to come up with a game plan to take down a Rockets team that won nine out of 10 to finish the season. “We’re going to prepare and we’re going to fight and we’re gonna go try to win the series,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said. — Dave McMenamin
One big question for the postseason:
Can the Lakers stay alive in the playoffs long enough for and to return from their respective injuries? The Lakers’ late-season momentum came to a screeching halt on April 2 in Oklahoma City when Doncic suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, Reaves suffered a Grade 2 left oblique muscle injury and the Thunder pounded the Lakers by 43. Can shift back from the third option and lead L.A. to wins while those guys are on the mend? — McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
James. A month ago, there was concern about the chemistry across the Lakers’ three stars. After a successful month of improved chemistry, two of them got hurt. There are no chemistry issues anymore, are there? Now, James just has to see if all those career-extending devices and tricks have Ultimate Mode. LeBron’s four best games of the season had him adding plus-11.0, plus-9.2, plus-8.2, and plus-8.0 Net Points. That’s about plus-9 points per game toward winning. Between him, Doncic and Reaves, they added plus-8.5 per game, so the very best of James for four days could get them to the second round. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
Disaster struck in OKC last week. Two of their three best players, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, were injured in the game and are out for weeks. Getting to the second round would be worthy of a celebration — and might give Doncic and Reaves a chance to return. Short of that, I don’t see how the Lakers can feel anything but crushed by the misfortune of the end of the year. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Lakers are 37-1 when leading a game through three quarters — best of any team this season.
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Round 1 matchup: Los Angeles Lakers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.6%
NBA title odds: +6000
What to watch for in Round 1:
Houston appeared to overcome some of the issues with chemistry that plagued them at times during the regular season, but what happens once the pressure is ratcheted up a notch in the playoffs? Remember, the Rockets are playing without four high-level contributors (, , and ) from last year’s squad, and they’ve spent the majority of the season working out the expected kinks that came with adding a generational player in . — Wright
One big question for the postseason:
Do the Rockets have a closer? The blown leads throughout the regular season were concerning, but those took place because of an inability to consistently generate offense in late-game situations. That’s partially a product of point guard VanVleet’s absence due to a . Durant, , and have shown improvement, but can they rise to the moment come playoff time? — Wright
Player who can swing the first round:
. He has been very average this season at essentially 0.0 Net Points per 48 minutes on both ends of the court. But he was bad against playoff-level teams and bad in the clutch — and he actually led the league in “threshold losses,” games in which the Rockets “would have won” if he hadn’t played. We don’t really know who the Rockets’ leader is, but they need Smith to step up if they want to get out of the first round. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
This team is still very much finding itself. Losers of six of 10 games in mid-March, they responded by winning nine of their final 10, even though they still lack a proven point guard. Winning a series would be a huge step forward for them and they might have a chance against a wounded Lakers team. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Rockets are plus-8.4 in rebounds per game — the best in the league and fourth-best in a single season since 1970-71.
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Round 1 matchup: Denver Nuggets
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.5%
NBA title odds: +9000
What to watch for in Round 1:
After two straight trips to the West finals, the Wolves are not a group brimming with momentum heading into this postseason. They closed out the regular season going 5-5 and finished eighth in defensive rating, a slip from sixth a year ago; they’re 13th in offensive rating, when they were eighth last season. Still, they have entering his prime after averaging a career-best 28.8 points per game, many of the same pieces from their last couple playoff runs in , , , and , and emerging contributors in and . — McMenamin
One big question for the postseason:
How healthy are and ? Edwards missed 10 out of 11 games from mid-March through early April with a , while McDaniels recently missed six straight games with patellar tendinopathy and a bone bruise in . The Wolves proved by making it to the conference finals as the No. 6 seed last spring that they shouldn’t be underestimated as a lower seed — but that’s when they were at full strength. — McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
Edwards. He is the only Timberwolves player whose net points against playoff-level teams are above zero (plus-3.2 per 48 minutes). Zero means average, and most of them are below it. Edwards, who has dealt with a right knee injury this season, has to raise the play of the teammates around him. For the record, last season’s Wolves came from the No. 6 seed to the conference finals, but nearly their entire rotation was positive against playoff-level teams. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
Two of their three best players, Edwards and McDaniels, are going into the playoffs dealing with injuries. Still a dangerous low seed, the concept of Minnesota making a third straight conference finals seems like a long shot. But that’s the bar. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The starting lineup of Donte DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert played 710 minutes together this season — that’s over 150 more minutes than any other lineup in the league.
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Play-in matchup: Portland Trail Blazers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1%
NBA title odds: +60000
What to watch in the play-in:
is back in the postseason for the fifth time in the last six years – with his third different coach. Phoenix remade its team with an offseason trade with Houston, sending out and bringing in and . They also fired and hired Jordan Ott, who built the Suns into a top-10 defense in his first season as a head coach. Booker is coming off another All-Star season, Brooks had a career year, is a Most Improved Player candidate and was one of the best bench scorers in the league, making Phoenix no slouch as the No. 7 seed. — McMenamin
One big question for the postseason:
Is the Suns’ regular-season success against San Antonio an indicator of how competitive the series will be? Phoenix went 2-2 against the Spurs, with one of those losses – a 101-100 defeat on March 19 – coming without Brooks available. And if the Suns can make it a series early on, will San Antonio’s playoff inexperience work in Phoenix’s favor? — McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
Brooks. The Suns were 30-19 and sixth in the West on Feb. 1. Brooks was coming off two of the best games of his career, posting plus-8.1 Net Points vs Cleveland and plus-10.2 vs Detroit in wins. Since then, the Suns are 14-17, and Brooks has missed a lot of games — he fractured his left hand on Feb. 21 and missed more than a month — and many shots. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
It’s already successful, regardless of postseason result. The Suns’ preseason projections ranked them 13th in the Western Conference, with win totals in the low-30s. Under new coach Jordan Ott, they have exceeded expectations in almost every way. Their cap and draft pick situation is another conversation. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Suns are fifth in the league in 3s made per game (14.8) and second in 3s allowed (12.2).
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Play-in matchup: Phoenix Suns
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1%
NBA title odds: +200000
What to watch in the play-in:
The youth. Nobody is expecting a deep run from the Blazers, but even a taste of postseason basketball should have a growth effect for the youngest layer of this evolving roster. has been impressive the last few months. How does he respond as the stakes elevate? Can finish off what has been a rocky third season on a positive note? has emerged into a legit go-to scorer for the Blazers, but playoff schemes and defensive focus tend to reveal more about weaknesses in a star’s game. The Blazers leveled up this season. They should get more information over the next couple of weeks on how many levels they still have to go. — Anthony Slater
One big question for the postseason:
Can their defense translate enough to keep them competitive? The Blazers have the fourth-ranked defense since the All-Star break. Clingan is an improving paint protector. and hound on the perimeter. They can hold teams down. Considering they have to win through the play-in just to get a crack at either the Spurs or Thunder — league-best defenses they will have a challenging time scoring against — they’ll need to succeed on the defensive end to survive. — Slater
Player who can swing the first round:
Camara. When he puts together his offense with his ability to force turnovers, he is Portland’s best player. The problem is that he has done that mostly against bad teams. Most of the rest of the Blazers’ primary rotation has been pretty good against playoff-level opponents. Camara needs to be at least decent offensively if they’re going to make a dent. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
Already there. The Blazers are assured of at least some postseason play and will get at least one home game, significant progress after four years in the NBA wilderness. With Avdija, and Clingan, a core in Portland is beginning to take shape. They have a long way to go, but the first steps have been taken. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Blazers lead the league in second-chance points per game (18.3). That is the second-best by any team since 1996-97 (The 2021-22 Grizzlies averaged 18.7)
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Play-in matchup: Golden State Warriors
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1%
NBA title odds: +70000
What to watch in the play-in:
After starting 6-21, the Clippers finished 36-19 to complete coach Tyronn Lue’s challenge to finish above .500 and qualify for the postseason. They’ll host the at Intuit Dome, with a chance to play the defending champion in the first round with a win. As difficult as that series promises to be, it might be more difficult for the Clips to see their former player, , suiting up on the other side. — McMenamin
One big question for the postseason:
After his finest season as a Clipper, what does have in store for the playoffs? The former two-time NBA Finals MVP has only been available for 35 of the 50 postseason games L.A. has played since he left Toronto. With , and all gone, Leonard is the last man standing from the “Streetlights over Spotlights” era of the Clips. — McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
Leonard. The Clippers have faced an uphill battle since their awful start to the season. There were a number of players who helped get them out of that hole, but Leonard has performed at an All-NBA level.
With an uphill battle in the playoffs and Leonard having one of his best seasons ever, he is poised to lead a pretty good group of veterans into a tough matchup for a top seed. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
It’s very unlikely they will reach any designation to make it so. The Clippers have had back-to-back largely healthy seasons from Kawhi Leonard and, still, might get nothing out of it. Their decision to dump talent at the trade deadline sent the signal across the NBA that they didn’t believe in the roster and needed to start a rebuild. All with the shadow of scandal hanging over them. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: Since the Clippers parted ways with Chris Paul on Dec. 20, they are third in the league in win % (.660).
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Play-in matchup: LA Clippers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1%
NBA title odds: +80000
What to watch in the play-in:
, on an expiring $30.7 million contract, represents one of the bigger choices the Warriors’ front office needs to make this summer. He brings a tantalizing skill set this team lacks — a 7-footer who stretches the floor and protects the rim — but and availability make him a risk. They have next to zero data with him next to and . The fit should work in theory, but the Warriors would feel a whole lot more comfortable committing money to Porzingis this summer if they can see a handful of high leverage games where he is healthy enough to give 30-plus minutes and is clicking with their core. — Slater
One big question for the postseason:
Is it actually better for the Warriors to lose in the play-in? If the Warriors survive two road play-in games, their reward will be a first round series with the defending champion , waiting after a week of rest and prep. In doing so, they’d be giving up a 9.4% chance at a top-four pick in a loaded draft and, assuming they don’t jump up in the lottery, sacrificing the 11th pick for a slight tumble to 15th. The organization will make a real effort to reach the postseason for Curry and the veterans, but it isn’t difficult to understand that a quick play-in loss, summer of rest and chance at lottery luck is healthier for the franchise. — Slater
Player who can swing the first round:
Curry. Let’s set this straight — there is one way for the Warriors to move past the first round that doesn’t involve science fiction. That way requires Curry to be the best he can be. He had back-to-back outstanding games in wins over San Antonio back in November, posting plus-14.2 and plus-11.7 Net Points. That’s what Curry can still do, and they need it. — Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if…
If Curry gets to play some playoff games. That’s the bar this season. He doesn’t have that many left, so any additional prime-time games are a bonus to a Hall-of-Fame career. With Jimmy Butler out and a roster filled with holes, the Warriors are not going anywhere meaningful this spring. — Windhorst
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Stat to know: The Warriors went 24-17 (.585 win %) in games with Stephen Curry this season and 13-25 without him (.342 win %).
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