Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised … if C scores the most points at catcher
OK, fans, calm down. remains great, and no, we should not care so much about his relatively slow start. Raleigh is gonna “Raleigh” this season, but c’mon, he isn’t hitting 60 home runs again. Few thought that would happen. In 2024, Raleigh hit .220 with 34 home runs. I am all for players making strides, adjustments, whatever, during their monster season. Still, I always expected Raleigh to revert somewhat to his 2024 numbers — something like 35-40 home runs and a .235-.240 batting average.
Well, it sure looks like Baldwin, in his second season, is well on his way to doing something at least like that — and perhaps with far more batting average. Sure, it’s early, and Baldwin, who entered Wednesday hitting .327 with five home runs and 14 RBIs, is not going to stay on that pace and hit 60 home runs with more than an RBI per game, but this is a fantastic situation for him. Baldwin plays every day, either behind the plate or at designated hitter, as the Braves lack a regular DH. Baldwin hit 19 home runs as a rookie over only 124 games and 446 PA. He will eclipse all of those figures in Year 2.
We all underrated Baldwin in preseason drafts. I thought the Braves, after losing DH and presumptive LF , might do this, utilizing strong defensive veterans and eventually (hip) behind the plate for at least 60 games. Raleigh was able to hit 60 home runs last season in part because he played in 159 games, handling DH duties in 38 games, or nearly twice per week. Baldwin appears to be on this path. He’s 25 and hits second in a strong, if top-heavy, lineup, with a high contact rate and emerging power.
Good for Baldwin! This appears to be real. I faded Raleigh in drafts, but I tend to fade all catchers in early rounds of shallow, one-catcher formats (like ESPN’s). I think, at this point, Raleigh, Baldwin and C should be viewed similarly, as borderline top-50 overall selections. Perhaps Baldwin is a lot better than that, though.
Don’t be surprised … if RHP is back to his awesome, prior top-10 pitcher self
Alcantara has thrown 24⅓ innings through his first three starts and, for a while on Tuesday it looked like he would register his second consecutive “Maddux,” which references a complete-game shutout on fewer than 100 pitches. Alcantara cruised into the ninth inning against the , at home, with a two-hit shutout on fewer than 90 pitches. A double and a walk later and he was (controversially, in Alcantara’s mind) removed, the lead was blown and Alcantara’s ERA ballooned to 0.74. He didn’t permit a run in his first two starts, albeit against the and .
OK, so it is clear and obvious Alcantara hasn’t faced the 1927 Yankees here and three home starts in spacious, whatever-they-call-that-Miami-domed stadium is about as friendly to a hurler as possible. Still, can’t we dream that Alcantara has returned to his Cy Young-winning level season of 2022? He posted a 2.28 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP then. He didn’t do that in 2023, missed 2024 due to Tommy John surgery and famously sputtered for much of last season before closing strong with a 2.68 ERA over his final eight outings. Alcantara looked great in September, and sometimes this is a precursor to a great follow-up season.
It’s one thing to believe strong finishes by pitchers such as Braves RHP (3.40 ERA last August/September), Reds RHP (3.26 ERA) or RHP (2.16 ERA) are legitimate to carry over, but Alcantara is far more accomplished. His velocity returned last season, but his control was off. So far, he has faced 86 hitters and walked only four. A .159 BABIP must correct itself at some point, but we aren’t asking Alcantara to give us six months with a 0.74 ERA. Can he give us six months with a 2.75 ERA? He should face the , Brewers, and (uh oh) over the rest of the month. We will learn a lot more about Alcantara, but let’s be positive. He’s back.
Don’t be surprised … if OF is a top-50 fantasy hitter
Fantasy managers are always too quick to give up on top prospects who don’t dominate in their first season. I’m not saying that Smith is the next , but he was the No. 14 pick in the 2024 amateur draft from Florida State and there was little worry about him hitting MLB pitching. The Astros stole him from the in the “rental trade” and Tucker is already elsewhere. Smith, after only 20 Double-A plate appearances and none in Triple-A, debuted for Houston in his age-22 season, a third baseman learning right field on the fly. Patience was justified.
After hitting .307 with a .788 OPS in May and .303 with a .849 OPS in June, Smith struggled. He hit just .154 with a .489 OPS after the All-Star break and the Astros claimed they promised little for 2026, with a trip to Triple-A to begin this season possible. Fantasy managers ran away. I kind of ran toward this situation, though, especially after veteran OF was traded to the as spring training began. That was a sign. The Astros knew Smith would emerge.
Smith entered Wednesday hitting .300/.417/.575 in 12 games and 48 PA with three home runs, three stolen bases and a beautiful 14.6% walk rate. His hard-hit and Barrel rates are way up, along with bat-speed figures, and the right-handed hitter was flashing a .375/.483/.708 line versus right-handed pitching. There is some BABIP love here, but again, Smith was always going to hit. Manager Joe Espada recently told reporters that Smith is “capable of stealing 15 to 20 bases,” too. If this walk rate continues in some positive form, I’m all in. This is a 20/20 player somehow available in more than 60% of ESPN standard leagues. Um, you know what to do.
