The are two weeks away, and the is taking shape.
In the East, the have already clinched a playoff berth in hopes of securing the conference’s No. 1 seed. In the West, secured his first playoff appearance with the , while the — who are just ahead of the Spurs — hope to repeat as NBA champions.
Will the Thunder be what stands in San Antonio’s way for a Finals appearance? Ultimately, it will depend on each team getting the right — or wrong — series matchup. And despite playoff contenders catapulting themselves over conference competition, each team possess a kryptonite that could lead to their playoff undoing.
Our insiders evaluated the biggest weakness of the top 10 NBA Finals contenders — bench production, 3-point shooting, among others — and broke down their possible impact in a deep postseason run. ESPN analyst Zach Kram then selected the opponent best positioned to exploit it.
(Note: Each team’s playoff chances are according to .)
Jump to a team:
East: | | |
West: | | | | |
Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.6%
Chance to make the Finals: 30.6%
Kryptonite: 3-point shooting
You can’t ignore it: 3-point shooting is the great equalizer in today’s NBA, and the Pistons don’t have enough of it. Even with and . spreading the floor last season, they were in the bottom third in the league from beyond the arc. Now, they’re 29th in attempts and 28th in makes. They rely so much on the defense creating offense and ‘s brilliance in the half court, it feels like an easy bugaboo to point out that the three other contenders (Knicks, Celtics and Hornets) in the East are all top 10 in makes.
Can acclimate himself enough to make a difference? Will find his movements to create open looks? The Pistons have survived this season knowing their weaknesses, but May and June feel like a different season. — Vincent Goodwill
Opponent to avoid: and
The Celtics and Knicks both have top-five defenses that are built around taking away the paint and letting opponents fire away from deep. They lead all playoff teams in opponents’ 3-point attempt rate, with 45% of the shots they give up coming from long range. But if the Pistons’ personnel means they’re unable to take advantage of the shots that Boston and New York naturally give up, then a series against either Eastern Conference foe could prove a tough slog for Detroit’s offense. — Zach Kram
Chance to make the East semifinals: 72%
Chance to make the Finals: 17.4%
Kryptonite: Fast-break scoring
Given the long-standing truth that the game always slows down in the playoffs, fast-break scoring is the best issue to have. The Celtics rank last in fast-break points per game (11.4), and Boston will be hoping that ‘s return will eventually mitigate any offensive issues. So far, Tatum’s play has come in , but overall it has been encouraging to see him return less than a year after suffering an Achilles tear and immediately find ways to contribute to winning. And Boston will also be counting on its huge edge in playoff experience in the East to be a benefit. — Tim Bontemps
Opponent to avoid: Detroit Pistons
If the Celtics don’t score in transition, then they’ll need to maximize their opportunities in the half court. But the Pistons could make that difficult, as they boast by far the best half-court defense in the East, according to Cleaning the Glass; only the Thunder have a better half-court defense. Whether the Pistons’ wings are up to the task of defending Tatum and for a full series remains to be seen — all four matchups between the teams came before Tatum’s return — but at the very least, they’d force Boston to grind out every possession. — Kram
Chance to make the East semifinals: 75.7%
Chance to make the Finals: 20.7%
Kryptonite: Bench scoring
It’s amazing when you look at the Knicks starters’ minutes compared to last season: Only is close to his numbers from last season at 35 minutes a game. Still, because coach Mike Brown’s team is so reliant on the starters to produce, New York’s bench is averaging 31.2 PPG, which ranks 28th in the league.
is in a prolonged production slump. is constantly under fire. Off the bench, has had moments (39% from 3), has been spotty and isn’t a consistent scoring contributor. is recovering from hernia surgery and could be available in the postseason, but who can Brown truly depend on for alternate options on offense? — Goodwill
Opponent to avoid:
There are two reasons the Heat are best suited to take advantage of New York’s lack of bench scoring. First, Miami leads all teams with a winning record in bench scoring, with 42.9 points per game, meaning the Heat — led by Sixth Man of the Year contender . — could overwhelm New York’s bench units. And second, the Heat play at the fastest pace in the NBA, which could induce greater fatigue in the Knicks’ starters and require Brown to turn more to his weaker bench than usual. — Kram
Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 20.8%
Kryptonite: 3-point defense
Cleveland has had its opponents shoot 40.9% on corner 3s, the third-worst among all NBA teams. When the Cavs lost to the in last season’s conference semifinals, Indiana shot 42.6% from 3 in the series, so letting an opponent get too comfortable shooting 3s has been a part of Cleveland’s undoing in the past. With a defense built around two rim protectors, and , the Cavs are all-in on protecting the paint and know they’re going to give up 3s as a result. But they also recognized the rate at which they were getting lit up from beyond the arc wasn’t going to cut it during the playoffs.
The Cavs will be counting on their deadline acquisitions to make a difference. got all the headlines, but Cleveland also added and off the bench, replacing a few of their weaker perimeter defenders from earlier in the season. So far, it has made the Cavs 3-point defense more respectable: opponents are shooting 36% since Feb. 5, which ranks 16th. — Jamal Collier
Opponent to avoid:
Cleveland has mostly handled Charlotte just fine this season, going 3-1, with the only loss coming in overtime in a game Mobley sat out. But Hornets rookie leads the league in 3-point makes, and as a team, the Hornets lead the league in 3-pointers (16.2 per game) and rank third in 3-point accuracy (38%); since Jan. 1, they’re first in both stats. Their long-range readiness could stretch Cleveland’s defense to the breaking point. — Kram
Chance to make the West semifinals: 91.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 55.3%
Kryptonite: Corner 3s
Even the league’s best defense has to give up something in the modern NBA, when offenses are scoring more efficiently than ever. The Thunder prioritize making their opponents play in crowds, which is a major factor in Oklahoma City forcing so many turnovers, ranking second in that category (16.9 per game) after leading the league last season. That sacrifice the Thunder make for swarming the ball is living with foes getting up a lot of 3s. Opponents hit 14.3 3-pointers per game against OKC; only the and give up more. A healthy percentage of those are the most efficient jump shots in the game: The Thunder give up a league-worst 4.6 made corner 3s per game. — Tim MacMahon
Opponent to avoid: San Antonio Spurs
As if the Spurs didn’t already look like the biggest threat to Oklahoma City’s chance to repeat — winning four of five regular-season games against the Thunder — San Antonio is also perfectly suited to expose this Thunder weakness. The Spurs attempt a league-leading 12.4 corner 3s per game, making 39% of them. Among individual players, ranks second in total corner 3 attempts, ranks fourth, and and each rank in the top 25.
If anything, the Spurs got unlucky against Oklahoma City in their five matchups: They took 13.2 corner 3s per game but made only 31.8%. They should expect to sink more of those tries in a potential conference finals matchup. — Kram
Chance to make the West semifinals: 82.9%
Chance to make the Finals: 26.4%
Kryptonite: Not putting away teams
San Antonio routinely jumps out of the gate firing, having led by 15 points or more in 59% of its outings, which translates to a record of 38-4 in that scenario. But it’s worth noting the Spurs have lost 13 games in which they’ve led by 10 points or more, tying the Nuggets for the fourth-most losses in the NBA, which points to an issue finishing games. That’s to be expected from a young team short on playoff experience embarking on its first postseason since 2019. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has talked repeatedly about the importance of his team keeping its “poise and composure” while avoiding the “hesitancy” that sometimes keeps San Antonio from knocking out opponents when they’re on the ropes. –– Michael C. Wright
Opponent to avoid:
If the Spurs struggle to put away teams, then it stands to reason that they’d want to avoid facing the NBA’s best clutch team. The Lakers’ 22-7 clutch record might not be predictive — clutch performance is often fluky and subject to small-sample randomness — but with , and , the Lakers have the isolation scorers and offensive firepower to repeatedly pull out close games. If the Spurs end up facing the Lakers in the second round, they’ll need to keep building their lead throughout each game, rather than taking their foot off the gas and letting Doncic and the others have a chance in the final minutes. — Kram
Chance to make the West semifinals: 58.2%
Chance to make the Finals: 4.1%
Kryptonite: Rim protection
Opposing scouting reports know that nobody on the Lakers’ roster averages even one blocked shot per game this season, so there’s little fear when teams attack the rim against L.A. The Lakers see opponents shoot 61.3% in the paint — 29th in the league, according to GeniusIQ.
The two who shoulder the most responsibility for N.E.B. (no easy buckets) are centers and . called Ayton, the No. 1 pick in 2018, the and Hayes — a 7-footer who was in the dunk contest during All-Star weekend — certainly has the physical tools to get it done. But the problem is not just with the Lakers’ backline. It is incumbent on the Lakers’ perimeter players — be it and Reaves or and — to provide an initial barrier at the point of attack. When an offensive player blows by the defense, allowing him to accelerate as he advances toward the paint, it can neutralize even the best shot blockers. — Dave McMenamin
Opponent to avoid: and San Antonio Spurs
The league-leading offense in terms of field goal percentage in the paint is actually the Lakers, and they can’t play themselves. But they can play the Timberwolves, who rank second by making 60.5% of their shots in the paint, and they can also play the Spurs, who rank third with a 60.4% mark. The Timberwolves dominated the Lakers in the playoffs last year, and they could try to repeat that feat this spring with all the pressure they put on the basket. Meanwhile, the Spurs and could be a huge problem down low if the Lakers face San Antonio in the second round. — Kram
Chance to make the West semifinals: 34.5%
Chance to make the Finals: 1.3%
Kryptonite: Turnovers
Houston seemed resigned earlier in the season to accept that turnovers might just be a consequence of not having a true point guard because of a season-ending injury to . It has been on a pair of high-usage players, and , to facilitate the offense. Sengun and Durant rank eighth and 10th in the NBA in turnovers per game (3.3 and 3.2, respectively). As a team, the Rockets average 15.7 turnovers, tied for fourth worst in the NBA. Opponents have feasted on those giveaways, scoring 19.1 points per game off turnovers, which ranks sixth most in the league. Houston has dropped six games in a row this season in overtime for a 1-7 record in OT, with turnovers almost always serving as a deciding factor. –– Wright
Opponent to avoid: Oklahoma City Thunder
With a horde of perimeter ball hawks, the Thunder rank second in the NBA in opponent turnover percentage (behind only Detroit), and they lead the league by scoring 22.3 points per game off turnovers. That’s a dangerous proposition against a team that doesn’t really play a true point guard. The Rockets succeed because their offensive rebounding prowess allows them to win the possession battle, but too many turnovers would swing that advantage to Oklahoma City. — Kram
Chance to make the West semifinals: 69.3%
Chance to make the Finals: 8.9%
Kryptonite: Forced turnovers
Denver has a lot of defensive problems, but a lack of playmaking on that end stands out. The Nuggets rank last in turnovers forced per game (11.8) and 29th in blocked shots (3.9). ‘s presence was missed in these areas during his extended absence because of a hamstring strain, finally . He leads the Nuggets in blocked shots (1.1 per game), helping mask three-time MVP ‘s most glaring weakness, and ranks second in steals (1.0). , who has sat out significant stretches because of his own hamstring issues, doesn’t get a lot of blocks or steals, but is the duct tape that holds the Denver defense together. — MacMahon
Opponent to avoid: Houston Rockets
It might seem counterintuitive to suggest the turnover-happy Rockets offense could be a problem for the turnover-averse Nuggets defense. But if Houston’s main issue is too many turnovers, then it might find smoother sailing against a Nuggets offense that won’t take away the ball very often. Combine a relative lack of turnovers with all of Houston’s offensive rebounds, and the Rockets could win the possession battle decisively against Denver. — Kram
Chance to make the West semifinals: 37.8%
Chance to make the Finals: 1.9%
Kryptonite: Bench production
The Timberwolves rank 23rd in the league with only 33.5 bench points per game, sorely missing the offensive punch that provided before leaving for a free agency payday from Atlanta. But Minnesota has made major progress in this area recently. The trade-deadline acquisition of gave the Wolves’ bench a major boost. He has averaged 13.2 points with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9%, serving as a reserve before filling in as a starter as deals with right knee soreness. also has been balling, averaging 17.6 points on .484/.417/.929 shooting splits in the past five games, helping the Wolves go 4-1 in Edwards’ absence. –– MacMahon
Opponent to avoid: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder could swamp the Timberwolves’ bench units, as they have the NBA’s deepest team, with up to 13 players worthy of appearing in their playoff rotation if everyone is healthy this spring. That gives Oklahoma City plenty of backup plans if something goes wrong in any particular game, whereas Minnesota’s relatively short rotation translates to a lack of flexibility. — Kram
