Nice have caught many people off guard this season and are firmly in the race for a top-four finish.
Nice odds
Odds
Top-four finish
Winner without PSG
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Whether Nice can still be considered outsiders at this stage of the season comes down to personal interpretation. Some may argue they are, given their past struggles to bridge the gap to the top four.
Nice haven’t finished inside the top four in Ligue 1 since the 2016/17 season, but that could all be about to change if their upward trajectory continues. They have had several near misses along the way and finished fifth in two of the last three campaigns.
It took them some time to get going this season as they started incredibly slowly. A resounding 8-0 win over Saint Etienne sparked their turnaround, and they have never looked back. Since then, they have lost just two of their last 19 league games.
They were actually 12th in the table before that record-breaking victory, which makes their rise even more remarkable. Their next opponents are coincidentally Saint-Etienne, and another dominant display could see their top-four odds tumble even further.
Interestingly, despite trailing Nice by three points, Monaco are priced at 1.44 with Stake to finish in the top four. Their shorter odds suggest they are more likely to finish in the top four than Nice. That’s despite the fact Monaco have lost more league games in their last six than Nice have in their last 19.
That could indicate the bookmakers are still underestimating Nice. That is particularly true given a slim majority of their remaining fixtures are against bottom-half sides. They have suffered just one defeat all season to a side currently in the bottom half.
Despite their revival, their chances of catching PSG at the summit are non-existent. They trail the Parisians by 16 points and would need an unprecedented, catastrophic collapse by the reigning champions to catch up.
This is highly unlikely to happen, and with top-four odds well under evens, there isn’t much value in the market. However, another market could offer a great source of value. Both Stake and 1xBet offer a market on a league winner behind PSG, where backing Nice could be a smart move.
Marseille (1.44), Monaco (5.00), Lille (9.00) and Nice (9.00) are the four sides leading the race. Marseille are currently second, but they are only three points ahead of Nice. Such a narrow lead certainly doesn’t justify the huge price difference.
This suggests there is potential value in backing Nice, who are currently the best-placed side behind Marseille. Nice defeated Marseille at the end of January, before suffering a 3-0 loss to Auxerre last weekend. That handed them as many defeats in five league games as Nice have had in their aforementioned 19-game run.
Complicating matters further for Marseille, they also have to play three of the top five away from home in their remaining fixtures. Couple that with their recent unsteadiness, and suddenly they no longer seem as favourable for a second-place finish behind PSG.
There could be an opportunity to take advantage of this, and Nice appear to be the best option despite the bookmakers disagreeing. That could be because they haven’t finished in Ligue 1’s top two since 1975/76. Still, records are there to be broken, and this Nice side represent good value to do so.