Liverpool seemed unstoppable until last weekend, but a shock FA Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle exposed a weakness in their game.
Everton v Liverpool match odds
Odds
Everton Win
Draw
Liverpool Win
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Despite being one of the Premier League’s juggernauts, Liverpool don’t spend as much as others.
Over the last five seasons, the Reds have only had the eighth-largest net spend in the division, and the smallest among the traditional big six. This is now starting to catch up with Liverpool, who suddenly don’t have too much depth behind what would be deemed as their best 11.
Sunday’s loss to Plymouth made that clear, with only Luis Diaz featuring as a player typically considered a first-choice starter. A youthful Liverpool side looked disjointed against Argyle, with fringe players like Federico Chiesa coming in and proving why they don’t play often. The Italian winger was Slot’s only available summer signing, and the lack of squad improvements has resulted in a weaker team when changes are made.
Competing on four fronts has forced Slot into making frequent changes this season, but the lack of depth is now beginning to take its toll. Liverpool had an elite level squad for years, but since the likes of Fabinho, Thiago, Henderson, Matip, Keita etc have left, that’s no longer the case.
Slot has done a remarkable job so far, but his concern now is that a hefty schedule is catching up with them at the worst possible time.
That’s the million dollar question, and the chasing pack behind Liverpool, particularly Arsenal, hope the answer is yes.
Liverpool have another five games left in February, including weekend and midweek fixtures for the rest of the month. That’s a gruelling enough schedule as it is, but it’s the calibre of opponents that really makes that run of games interesting.
It starts with a Merseyside derby against Everton on Wednesday, where Slot is expected to field his full-strength side. Following that, they face Wolves, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Newcastle in quick succession.
It seems unlikely that Liverpool will use the same starting 11 for every match, so Slot will need to rotate. The only viable rotation option in that run of games is the Wolves game next weekend, but the Plymouth evidence showed rotation can be dangerous.
There has been further evidence of that, as the Reds experienced a similar issue in their Champions League match against PSV and lost. Their two defeats in their last four games surpass the number of losses in their previous 30 matches, which suggests they’re starting to slow up amid rotation.
If Slot opts to rotate against Wolves after a gruelling derby and before a massive midweek game with Villa, a 12.0 price could be deemed generous. While Betway list Liverpool as favourites for their next four games, rotation probably makes them less favoured than the odds suggest.
With their Champions League campaign resuming in March and a Carabao Cup final on the horizon, Slot faces tough decisions. Liverpool fans will want to push for their second-ever Premier League title, but that could impact other competitions.
The FA Cup is already out of reach, and balancing such a heavy schedule could become problematic. If Slot tries to balance things out by rotating, Sunday’s evidence suggests there could be value in betting against Liverpool.