Inter Milan should be expected to defeat AC Milan by a scoreline of 3-0.
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The stage is set for another thrilling Derby della Madonnina as AC Milan and Inter Milan prepare to clash in Serie A’s standout fixture on Matchday 23.
For the Rossoneri, the new era under manager Sergio Conceiçao began impressively with a Supercoppa triumph over their city rivals. However, signs of inconsistency have emerged, highlighted by on-field tensions post their victory over Parma and a disappointing defeat to Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League.
Meanwhile, Inter have easily qualified for the Champions League Round of 16 with a 3-0 victory over AS Monaco. The Nerazzurri remain locked in a close title race with Napoli, a competition that seems likely to extend to the end of the season.
The probable lineup for AC Milan in the “system of play.”
Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Musah, Bennacer; Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao; Abraham.
The probable lineup for Inter Milan in the “system of play.”
Sommer; Pavard, De Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Zielińkski, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Lautaro Martinez.
AC Milan are the only team that have managed to beat Inter Milan in Serie A this season.
However, despite that victory in September, AC Milan’s primary target remains a fourth-place finish. They are currently five points away from that goal, but in practical terms, it’s just two, considering Coniceçao’s men have a game in hand.
The Nerazzurri are trailing Napoli by three points but, like their city rivals, they have a match to catch up on. The defending Serie A champions boast an impressive goal difference of +55, featuring the league’s most prolific attack and a defensive record of -18, the second-best in Italy’s top flight.
According to expected goals data, Inter Milan would lead the league with 47.29 points, which is nine more than AC Milan. This significantly narrows the current 16-point gap in the standings, which suggests that Sunday’s derby might be more competitive than anticipated.
Nonetheless, the demands of the Champions League cannot be overlooked for these AC Milan vs Inter Milan predictions.
Milan endured a challenging away match in Zagreb, whereas Inter’s home fixture was notably less demanding.
With a league record of nine wins, seven draws, and five defeats, AC Milan will aim to improve their tally of 32 goals, which is only the ninth best record in Serie A.
The hosts have kept just one clean sheet in the last nine games. The absence of defensive midfielder Youssouf Fofana (suspended), who ranks fourth in Serie A for tackles in the mid-third on the pitch, is a significant blow. This deprives the Portuguese manager of a much-needed protection for his shaky back line.
The Rossoneri have also conceded the first goal in six of their last seven games in all competitions. This statistic does not bode well ahead of this game.
Inter have scored and taken the lead in the first half of nine of the last 10 derbies.
Simone Inzaghi’s men have not failed to score in the league in the past 24 games, dating back to a 1-0 defeat at Sassuolo on 4 May 2024. They average 2.2 expected goals per match.
With their attack in such fine form, especially with captain Lautaro Martinez scoring nine goals in the past nine games, the visitors are in a strong position. As a result, backing the visitors to score first seems to be a smart option.
Since 2022, Milan and Inter have faced each other 10 times across various competitions.
Inter have emerged victorious in seven of those clashes, while Milan have claimed three wins.
Statistics show that Inter excel in ball possession, with an average of 59.6%, compared to Milan’s 54.6%, which ranks sixth. Inter also lead in total shots, with an average of 15.6 per game, slightly ahead of Milan’s 15.1.
Inter rank third in the league for matches with over 3.3 total goals, behind Lazio and Verona.
The last four derbies have all ended with over 2.5 goals, a trend present in seven of the last ten meetings. Both teams share a trend of under 10.5 corners, observed in five of Milan’s last six games and all of Inter’s past six.
In this case, combining a bet in the goals and corners market can boost your odds for these AC Milan vs Inter Milan predictions.