Matchday 24 in the Premier League is poised to be a relegation decider, with four of the bottom five teams facing off on Saturday afternoon.
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The Toffees have benefited from the ‘new manager bounce’ under David Moyes, securing back-to-back wins for the first time since April 2024.
A victory at home against Leicester, who climbed out of the bottom three last Sunday, thanks to their win against Spurs, would see the team from Merseyside almost certainly safe from relegation danger. However, a defeat could drag them back into the fight, and likely increase their relegation odds, currently set at 11, with an implied probability of 9.1%.
Our in-house tool gives Moyes’s side only a 2.9% chance of getting relegated, projecting them to finish the season with 41.4 points, one more than last campaign.
One big advantage for Everton is that they still have to play against all three promoted clubs at Goodison Park. With three wins Everton would climb up to 32 points, possibly enough to secure salvation even if they lost their other 13 games.
Despite Leicester’s success last weekend, they remain, alongside fellow promoted sides Ipswich and Southampton, key candidates for relegation this season, according to our projections. Similar to the 2023/2024 season, 30 points should be sufficient for survival.
Wolves, currently averaging 0.69 points per game, are expected to improve and collect an average of one point per game, ending the season in 17th place with a projected 32.6 points.
The team from the West Midlands have suffered four consecutive defeats, but these came against clubs occupying the top six positions in the table.
Their task remains daunting, with a clash against Aston Villa this weekend. This will be followed by a trip to Liverpool on 16 February and a match against Bournemouth, currently 7th and unbeaten since late November, on 22 February.
With current odds at 2.37 and an implied probability of 42.2%, betting on Wolves’ relegation offers good value, seeing as our projection tool assigns them a 44.6% chance of going down.
Wolves lost the reverse fixtures this season against Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Bournemouth and are unlikely to gain more than one or two points from these games, making now a potentially good time to bet on Vitor Pereira’s men finishing in the bottom three.
A victory for Ipswich on Saturday, against bottom club Southampton, would lift them out of the relegation zone for the first time since November. However, Kieran McKenna’s side have only won one home game this season, a 2-0 success over Chelsea.
With a projected final points tally of 29.4, matching Leicester, Ipswich could be an intriguing bet in the ‘not to be relegated’ market. Current odds of 4.33 give them a 23% probability of avoiding the drop, aligning with our model’s projections.
Although it carries some risk, their slightly more favorable schedule and an important home game against Wolves on 5 April could make them an attractive choice for bettors. In terms of expected points, Wolves would currently sit three points above the drop zone.
Southampton, on course to break the record for the lowest points total in a Premier League season (11, set by Derby County in 2007/08), have fallen short of expectations by 8.29 points – the second highest negative differential behind Tottenham.
Our model projects the Saints will finish bottom of the league but with 17.8 points, which is more than Sheffield United’s total last season.
The Blades collected 10 points from 23 games in 2023/2024, with a negative expected points differential of +5.57, lower than Southampton’s at this stage. Therefore, betting on Ivan Juric’s team to finish the season with fewer than 10 points, available from some bookmakers at odds of 9.00, might not offer substantial value.