Beyond the financial rewards (£1.77m for a win and £590,000 for a draw), winning in Europe’s top competition holds huge significance.
Champions League: Matchday 8
Odds
Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade: Young Boys or Red Star Belgrade And Over 2 Goals
Girona vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score – Yes
Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig: Leipzig or Draw And Over 2 Goals
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Nine of the 36 teams have already been eliminated, aware that even a win on Matchday 8 won’t be enough to keep them in Europe.
However, pride and the drive to exit the competition on a high could play a substantial role on the final matchday.
This is especially relevant for clubs unfamiliar with success in Europe’s top competition. It also applies to those unlikely to feature next season due to their current league standings, such as Bologna and Girona.
The clash between Young Boys and Red Star promises goals, with the hosts still searching for their first victory.
Red Star have struggled to win away in the Champions League since the ’90s. They have lost all of their last 12 away games in the group stages, with their most recent away success coming in 1992 against Panathinaikos.
For the Swiss side, whose players have an average market value of £2m, a victory would represent a significant financial boost. This would also enable them to sign players and be more competitive in the future.
The two sides have the second and third-worst defences in the competition, respectively. Our in-house tool gives them both an equal chance of winning, at 35.7%.
With the projected goal line at 2.27, backing a double chance victory and over 2.5 goals seems wise.
With a goal difference of +12, Arsenal are highly unlikely to drop out of the top 8.
Even a defeat to Girona could see the Gunners progress. This is because the teams below them—Inter Milan, Monaco, Lille, and Feyenoord—are set to play against each other.
Girona have scored only four times in the competition and lost five of their six games by just one goal. They will be eager to end their first Champions League campaign on a positive note.
The underlying data indicates Michel’s men should have scored 4.8 more goals than they have, which is the highest differential in the competition.
The Catalans are likely to concede on Wednesday, but they still have a chance to find the back of the net against Arsenal. This is despite Arsenal’s extremely good defensive record, as they have yet to concede a goal from open play in the competition.
Backing both teams to score feels like a logical choice. None of the teams from Europe’s top five leagues have lost five consecutive matches without scoring (Girona are currently on four).
Finally, RB Leipzig have improved their recent results. They have lost only once in their last five matches as they secured a late draw against Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend.
Our in-house projection tool gives Die Roten Bullen a 71.3% chance of winning. This is the second-highest probability for an away team on matchday 8, trailing only Real Madrid’s 73.4%.
Sturm Graz have yet to resume their domestic league, which is still on winter break. They have played just two competitive matches since 11th December and lost both – 5-0 to Atalanta and 3-2 away to Lille.
Their lack of match fitness was evident in Bergamo last week and could resurface against Marco Rose’s side.
Sturm Graz have lost six of their seven games in this season’s competition, averaging 0.74 xG per game and 2.12 xGA (expected goals against).
With Leipzig projected to score 2.20 goals, backing a double chance in favour of the Germans, along with over 2.5 goals could more than double your stake.