We expect PSG to secure a 3-1 win over Stuttgart.
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With Stuttgart in 24th and PSG in 22nd, neither team has secured a place in the knockout playoffs. The loser of this contest is in serious danger of falling out of the top 24. Stuttgart have a negative goal difference, while 25th-placed Manchester City have a positive one. A victory for City and anything less than a win for Stuttgart would result in Stuttgart’s elimination.
Stuttgart are in the middle of another solid domestic season, currently sitting in fourth place in the Bundesliga. However, they slipped to a 2-0 defeat at Mainz on Saturday, with Sebastian Hoeness’ side likely focusing on Thursday’s game with PSG.
The two teams have never met head-to-head in competitive European competition. Hoeness’ side have scored first in 17% of their home Champions League games so far in this league phase, which suggests they have been slow starters.
As for PSG, the big spenders of Ligue 1, they are still in pursuit of their first Champions League trophy. Nevertheless, a win at the MHP Arena this week could set them up well for a run in the knockout stage.
PSG are unbeaten in Ligue 1 this season and hold a ten-point lead over second-placed Marseille. This means Enrique and his players can fully focus on Thursday’s trip to Stuttgart.
The probable lineup for VfB Stuttgart in 4-4-2:
Nubel; Vagnoman, Mittlestadt, Rouault, Chabot, Leweling, Fuhrich, Keitel, Stiller, Millot, Undav
The probable lineup for PSG in 4-3-3:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Mendes, Marquinhos, Pacho, Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz, Dembele, Lee, Barcola
Although both teams go into this game with back-to-back Champions League victories, it can be argued that PSG’s victories were against much tougher opposition. Their 4-2 win over Manchester City last week was a groundbreaking result, which should give Luis Enrique’s side confidence to travel to Stuttgart and take another three points.
Stuttgart are fully aware they occupy the final qualification spot for the knockout playoffs as they go into Round 8 of the league phase. This pressure is likely to weigh on them heavily, with PSG’s positive goal difference likely to go in their favour, despite only being two places higher than Thursday’s opponents.
PSG also have more players capable of winning matches. That’s why our base case for Stuttgart vs PSG predictions is that the French side will land their first away win in the Champions League this season.
Stuttgart have seen 16 goals scored in their last three Champions League games. Meanwhile, PSG have had ten goals in their last three Champions League games. Given what’s at stake this week, it’s hard not to see more goals flowing at the MHP Arena.
Three of Stuttgart’s seven league phase games to date have finished with two or fewer goals scored. Four of PSG’s seven league phase games have had two or fewer goals.
With so much on the line, if PSG score first, it’s likely to draw Stuttgart out and result in an open, end-to-end contest.
When it comes to average goal timings, the second half appears most likely for goals. On average, PSG’s first goal comes in the 63rd minute, while Stuttgart’s comes in the 49th. Our Stuttgart vs PSG predictions show that both sides have struggled to start quickly in the first half.
As a matter of fact, 80% of PSG’s goals scored in the Champions League have come in the second 45. Meanwhile, 69% of Stuttgart’s goals conceded have also arrived in the second period.
If either team gets a first-half advantage, it will be an all-or-nothing mission in the second half. This scenario usually leads to chaos at both ends of the pitch, with the losing team pushing more players forward and taking more chances at the back.