Florian Wirtz already has five Champions League goals to his name, while Kylian Mbappé has hit form in time for matches against Salzburg and Brest.
Player
Odds to Finish as Champions League Top Scorer
Kylian Mbappe
Florian Wirtz
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Kylian Mbappé was the joint-top scorer in the Champions League last season, with eight goals. The 2023/24 campaign was the first since 2009/10 in which no player reached double figures in the competition.
With Robert Lewandowski already leading the way on seven goals, and seven other players having scored five or more, it’s inevitable the top scorer in 2024/25 will reach 10 or more. The extra two matches in the first round provide an additional opportunity for players to add to their tally, while teams placed between ninth and 24th will also get a couple of matches in the knockout playoffs.
Real Madrid, currently 20th with nine points from six matches, could be forced to face the playoffs. Bayer Leverkusen are only one point ahead of ninth before facing Atletico Madrid at the Metropolitano on matchday seven.
Real face Salzburg, who have conceded 18 goals in six matches, and Brest in their last two league stage matches. Leverkusen have a tricky trip to Spain when they take on Atleti, but they will be eyeing a comprehensive victory at home to Sparta Prague on the final matchday.
Florian Wirtz has already scored five Champions League goals. Lewandowski, Serhou Guirassy, and Raphinha are the only players ahead of him. Mbappé has only found the net twice, but he has overcome some early struggles at Real. The Frenchman has scored five times in his last eight appearances across all competitions, including a pair of substitute cameos.
Only seven players in Champions League history have scored more goals than Mbappé. Real found form towards the end of last year, overtaking Barcelona in La Liga and recording a crucial win away to Atalanta in the Champions League. A matchup with a Salzburg team that have already suffered heavy defeats to Brest, Leverkusen, and PSG is a chance for Mbappé to make up significant ground in the goal-scoring charts. His odds to finish as top goalscorer will tumble if he scores multiple goals at home to one of the competition’s leakiest defences.
Wirtz’s path is simpler. Leverkusen are poised for a deep run in the Champions League. Their star player has already scored 12 times across all competitions this season, with only 11 players amassing more expected goals in the Champions League so far.
Leverkusen have scored three or more goals on seven occasions this term. We shouldn’t be surprised if they hammer Sparta Prague on matchday eight, particularly if a place in the top eight is at stake.
The inconsistent form of Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City makes Guirassy and Erling Haaland unappealing options in this market. With Benfica and Atalanta to come, it won’t be easy for Lewandowski or Raphinha to add multiple goals before the knockout rounds. A matchup with Slovan Bratislava gives Harry Kane a chance, but his 6.00 price is far less appealing to that of Mbappé and Wirtz.
Even with Vinicius scoring three more goals than Mbappé in the Champions League so far, the Frenchman is a great option considering his phenomenal track record in the competition and two very favourable fixtures. If you believe Leverkusen can reach the semis, Wirtz is also well worth backing at this price.