Why Bettors Should Back The Unders in Europe’s Top-Scoring Big 5 League

Why Bettors Should Back The Unders in Europe’s Top-Scoring Big 5 League

Following a midweek Bundesliga schedule and European commitments next week, could last season’s instant drop in goals prove helpful?

Bundesliga ‘Unders’ Goal Trends

bet365 Odds

Bayern & Leverkusen Under 4.5 Double

1.91

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

This season, Over 2.5 goals have landed in 61% of Bundesliga fixtures to date. The goals per 90 average for the German top flight stands at 3.29 per 90, with the home side’s average at 1.79, compared to 1.50 for the visitors.

Last campaign, before the winter break, over 2.5 landed in 62.2% of Bundesliga matches, similar to the total we see this season, with Over 3.5 at 45.2%. However, in the first four rounds after the winter break, that dropped to 41.67% and 33.33% for over 2.5 and 3.5, respectively. 

Further back, in 2022/23, three seasons ago, the opening four matchdays after the winter break saw twenty-two out of thirty-six games head over 2.5 goals, equating to a 61% strike rate. So, there’s nothing noteworthy here. A year before, in 2021/22, an identical twenty-two out of thirty-six games breached the Over 2.5 goal line.

The first game following the winter break this season (Round 16) in January welcomed just three games with three or more goals. That is compared to the seven of nine matches in round 15 just before Christmas. The three Over 2.5 games represented the lowest strike rate of all 16 rounds in the Bundesliga during the 2024/25 season.

Is this season’s instant drop in goals something we can expect more of, or is 2024/25 a data outlier? In a perfect world, we’d wait a few more weeks to collect more data, but by then, the Bundesliga clubs might be back at their goalscoring best with a kinder schedule ahead of them.

In a league where goals are always abundant, could there be an opportunity to oppose goal totals in Germany? The weather is cold, the fixture schedule is bustling, and teams arrive back with a new sense of belief and purpose – even those defending for their lives.

In the midweek schedule of Round 17, six matches exceeded 2.5 goals for punters, following the goal-dry Round 16. However, it’s Round 18 that appears the most likely for a lack of goals. For some clubs, this will mark their third game in seven days as they prepare for European commitments. It might be challenging for some players to adjust after a twenty-day break from competitive football.

The two most significant Asian goal lines in the Bundesliga schedule during Round 16 are Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg (3.75) and Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Monchengladbach (3.5). 

Over 3.5 goals landed in 50% of Bayern’s home matches and 54% for Leverkusen this season. Given the circumstances and fixture scheduling, perhaps these two games will fall on the half of games where goals are limited. 

It should be noted that on Tuesday (21st), Bayer Leverkusen will travel away to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League for a 20:00 kick-off. Moreover, Bayern are in a similar position, with an away match against Feyenoord scheduled for their Wednesday night.

There are a few ways to approach this. The optimal strategy is to bet on under 4.5 goals in each game and combine them into a double. We lose if five or more goals rear its head in either game. If the theory is right, and these matches aren’t as aggressive as the bookmakers expect, we’ll come away with a 1.95 double win.

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