As Graham Potter steps into this managerial hot seat, what can bettors expect from the Hammers for the rest of the season?
Premier League: To Finish In Top Half
Odds
West Ham
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Although the team from East London find themselves seven points above the drop zone, they are 11 points behind their position from this time last season.
Yet, their campaign is far from lost. Two seasons ago, under David Moyes, West Ham were 18th after 20 games but clawed their way to finish 14th with 40 points and eventually won the Conference League.
Lopetegui’s tenure was less about defensive frailties and more about an attack struggling to finish off chances.
Interestingly, West Ham have been conceding goals at the same rate as last season (1.95 per game), showing little change in this area since Moyes left the club.
The real problem for West Ham lies in front of goal.
Despite an increase in shots (14.6 per game compared to 11.8) and a marginal increase in expected goals (xG) to 1.45 per game, West Ham’s actual goals per game have dropped from 1.58 to 1.2.
Last season, they finished ninth, yet xG data showed they should have finished with just over 41 points in 16th place.
Sometimes, the Premier League table does not show the full picture.
Graham Potter steps back into managerial life 647 days after his Chelsea departure.
He achieved 41 wins in over 142 Premier League games, which equates to a 29% win rate.
Should he replicate this win percentage at West Ham, they could end the season with 45 points, close to our model’s projection of 46 points and a 14th-place finish.
The key question is whether West Ham’s owners will support the new manager in the January transfer market.
The belief is that their current squad, even without any new signings, have enough talent to remain competitive.
However, there’s a growing need for another striker, especially after Michail Antonio’s recent car accident.
Potter is eager to strengthen the team, particularly in midfield, with Dewsbury-Hall emerging as a prime candidate.
Since his £30 million transfer from Leicester City to Chelsea, the 26-year-old has played just 55 minutes in the Premier League, all as a substitute.
However, aside from new reinforcements, a major shift in mentality is required for the players who have only rescued three points from losing positions so far.
Although betting on a top-half finish for the Hammers might appear risky given the high odds, Potter’s appointment appears to align with West Ham’s long-term plans.
Potter’s name has been mentioned for prestigious roles both nationally and internationally, including the England national team and Ajax. This is a testament to his standing in the game.
He played a key role at Brighton, laying the foundations for the club’s current European ambitions under Roberto de Zerbi.
West Ham had a lot of success under Moyes, such as winning the Europa Conference League in 2022-23.
However, there’s been a growing desire for a more modern approach among the fanbase. Potter’s appointment could be the answer to those calls for change.
With an average managerial tenure of 32 months, West Ham offer stability and support, which are qualities Potter hopes will allow him to build a successful future for the club.