It’s not just Premier League teams who need to be wary this weekend: surprises can strike at any level.
FA Cup: Third Round
Odds
Reading vs Burnley: Reading Asian Handicap +1
evens
Norwich City vs Brighton: Both Teams To Score and Over 2 Goals
Southampton vs Swansea City: Swansea Asian Handicap +0.75
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Treating the competition as merely a chance for rest and recuperation may leave big teams vulnerable to potential upsets.
Last season’s third round delivered notable surprise results, such as Bristol City’s 1-1 draw with West Ham at the London Stadium, Blackpool’s 2-2 against Nottingham Forest at the City Ground, and non-league Maidstone United’s 1-0 victory over Stevenage.
Two years ago, Stevenage’s 2-1 away win against Aston Villa defied average odds of 13.48.
Will this weekend see more giant-killings?
In the third round, Premier League and Championship clubs often rotate their squads, offering fringe players a chance and resting regular starters. This can open the door for lower-league sides.
However, with replays controversially scrapped from this campaign, big clubs may be less inclined to make many changes, knowing there’s no second chance in case of a draw.
All third-round ties will be decided on the day, with extra time or penalties if needed.
This weekend’s fixtures offer exciting opportunities for bettors.
League 1’s Reading, for example, are considered underdogs at odds of 5.50 to beat Burnley, who sit second in the Championship.
Reading have averaged 2.45 points per game this season at home. Meanwhile, the Clarets, unbeaten since November, boast a strong away defensive record with an xGA (expected goals against) of 1.12, the best record in the league.
However, Burnley are facing Sunderland next Friday in a top-of-the-table clash. As a result, Scott Parker might rotate his squad, giving Reading, who have won two home FA Cup ties already, a possible advantage.
Norwich vs Brighton promises entertainment, given the hosts’ knack for both scoring and conceding.
The Canaries have netted 43 goals but conceded 37, with their matches averaging 3.08 goals each.
Brighton, not as prolific as in previous seasons, have consistently found the net, failing to score just twice this season, both at home.
Under manager Fabian Hürzeler, the Seagulls have seen all three of their EFL Cup games produce at least three goals, which is likely to continue on Saturday.
Southampton, languishing at the Premier League’s bottom with just six points, may well be considered the worst-ever side in the division’s history. Even Derby County, who set the record for the lowest points tally in the Premier League in 2007/2008, had more points at this stage.
With their campaign set for relegation, Saints’ boss Ivan Juric might focus the team’s efforts on the FA Cup.
Indeed, in the world’s oldest national competition, even those battling at the bottom can find success.
Wigan Athletic won the trophy in 2013 and were relegated in the same season. In contrast, two recent losing finalists, Hull City in 2014 and Crystal Palace in 2016, had avoided the drop by just a couple of points.
Southampton will try to show the same determination as they host Swansea on Sunday.
The Welsh side, who currently sit 12th in the Championship, have been solid away from home, winning four times since October.
Backing the visitors with a +0.75 Asian Handicap can double your stake and it is an option worth considering.
Although Swansea haven’t beaten a Premier League side in the FA Cup since 2014, Luke William’s men have lost just once on the road by more than one goal margin this season.