We’ve analysed a few clubs, from France to Italy, whose recent results, driven by deceptive performances, may soon realign with their underlying statistics.
Toulouse vs Auxerre
Odds
Toulouse Asian Handicap -1
Real Sociedad vs Betis
Odds
Both Teams To Score – Yes
Brighton vs Southampton
Odds
Brighton win and Under 5 Goals
Torino vs Napoli
Odds
Draw or Napoli and Under 2.5 Goals
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Toulouse currently sit 10th in the Ligue 1 table having lost five of their opening 12 matches. But a dive into their xG data suggests a different narrative.
Carles Martínez Novell’s men should be placed 3rd, reflecting an underperformance of 7.13 points—the largest discrepancy in expected points among the top five European leagues.
Le Téfécé have failed to net 5.70 additional goals while conceding 3.50 more than anticipated. Dominating the xG battle in nine matches, their tally of only four wins in the league is telling.
Notably, their recent 3-0 defeat to PSG, despite leading the xG metric (1.84 to 1.63), showed unexpressed potential. In fact, this was the first occasion that PSG – undefeated in Ligue 1 – lost the xG contest.
Suffering from one of the league’s lowest shot conversion rates at 9.22%, Toulouse are matched by only five other teams in terms of inefficiency in front of goal.
Nevertheless, they are an attacking and well-drilled side, ranking seventh for touches in the opposition’s box and through balls played (19).
They’re also leaders in generating shooting opportunities from set-pieces, averaging 3.91 per game, and rank third in xG from set-pieces (4.11).
Weekend’s opponents Auxerre sit four points higher, but have outperformed their expected points by 2.91, and are projected to finish seven points below Toulouse in the table.
The odds for a Toulouse victory this weekend, reflecting a 58.8% implied probability, align with our in-house projections, suggesting good value in wagering on a -1 Asian handicap.
Turning to La Liga, Real Betis also catches the eye.
Based on xG data, Los Verdiblancos should be placed 4th rather than 9th, with a notable underperformance of 3.52 points.
Despite a significant xG value of +8.48, their lack of precision has only allowed 7.84% of shots to find the net.
Excelling at exploiting counter-attacks, Betis rank third for touches in the opposition’s box and second for fast break shots.
This weekend, Manuel Pellegrini’s men will face Real Sociedad, a team also underperforming their expected points by 1.72.
Known for their possession-based play, Sociedad is only eighth for touches in the opposition box and in passes in the attacking third.
Despite their strength in maintaining control, only three of their 14 league games have exceeded three goals. Betis, similarly, have seen nine of 14 matches remain low-scoring.
Our projection indicates these two sides will finish very close in the table come May, offering bettors an opportunity to back a double chance for Betis, combined with Over 1.5 Goals, Both Teams To Score – Yes, or a positive (+0.25) Asian handicap for the visitors.
Across Europe, notable overperformances include Napoli with a +6.47 point tally and Brighton at +4.36, both surpassing their expected outcomes.
Brighton, who face Southampton, should have conceded four more goals according to xG and would be 10th in such a scenario.
The Saints should have at least five more points according to xG data, but away from home, have struggled defensively, with an average of 2.17 expected goals against (xGA) per match this season.
Napoli, travelling to Torino, face the second-worst home side in Serie A by xG.
With odds only exceeded by Juventus for an away win in Serie A this weekend, a low-scoring game seems a prudent bet.
Backing an Under 2.5 Goals outcome or a double chance for Antonio Conte’s side with under four goals aligns with Napoli’s fifth-lowest expected goals (5.92, 0.98 per game) on the road record in Serie A.