It’s 16th hosting 15th in the fixture between Cagliari and Verona on Saturday. Cagliari are averaging just 0.86 points per home game, while Verona are averaging a meagre 0.50 points per away game this season. All of which suggests neither side is likely to dominate this encounter.
Cagliari have drawn three of their seven home games and, while Verona are yet to draw a game this season, it feels like the draw has a better chance of happening than the 28.57% probability offered by Stake. Cagliari are only managing to score once per home game, while Verona are scoring 1.17 goals per away game. All of which points to an evenly contested game.
Bologna’s home clash with bottom club Venezia on Sunday is one of our easiest Serie A predictions of the weekend. Venezia have struggled on the road, with two draws and five losses in their last seven away matches, conceding an average of two goals per game.
Interestingly, they’ve managed to score first in over half (57%) of these games, yet they clearly face significant challenges in managing the game thereafter.
As for Bologna, a comfortable three points here is much-needed to try and catch up with the sides in the European qualification places. They are unbeaten on home soil, but have drawn four of their five games in front of their fans.
With three wins in their last four games, it feels like Bologna are starting to find their feet after acclimatising to life in the Champions League.
The pressure is rising on AC Milan boss Paulo Fonseca. Already the gap between Milan and sixth-placed Juventus has stretched to six points and they are ten points shy of league leaders Napoli. Although their away form has been the biggest issue, the Rossoneri have still only won half of their home games too.
They welcome Empoli to the San Siro this weekend, with the mid-table side having drawn seven of their 13 Serie A games this season. They’ve averaged 1.50 points per away game, suggesting their defensive, counter-attacking style is paying dividends.
Empoli are unbeaten in their last three and they’ll do all they can to defend against Milan on Saturday evening.
Fiorentina have been the success story of the 2024/25 Serie A season so far. They currently sit in third place; one above Sunday’s opponents Inter and just one point behind pace-setters Napoli.
They welcome Inter to the Artemio Franchi Stadium in red-hot form, having won their last seven consecutive league games. Goalkeeper, David de Gea, has been central to their renaissance, providing much-needed stability between the posts.
Inter are in great form too and still in with a great shout of defending their Scudetto. Since their home derby loss to AC Milan in September, Inter have gone unbeaten, winning six and drawing two.
However, Fiorentina are eight points ahead of where they were at this point last season, making them a tough opponent to handle. Inter have been ahead at halftime in four of their last five encounters, so if the hosts can keep the score even by the break, they stand a good chance of taking something from the match.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that Roma’s season is in big trouble of imploding. They’ve lost five of their last six Serie A games, piling the pressure on veteran manager, Claudio Ranieri. By contrast, Atalanta have won their last seven league games and are closely following league leaders Napoli.
Roma have been thankful for their three home wins this season, since they’re yet to win away from the Stadio Olimpico. However, they’ve lost three times in front of their own fans already and we feel it could be a fourth defeat on Monday night.
Atalanta are eight points better off than this time last season, while Roma are eight points worse off than this time last season. All of which points to Atalanta being the more dangerous and progressive team.
In summary, our Serie A predictions for Matchweek 14 include evenly contested draws in the Cagliari vs Hellas Verona and Fiorentina vs Inter games. We also expect Empoli to give AC Milan a frustrating evening, with the game ending honours even.
However, we do predict a straightforward home win for Bologna against a Venezia side that doesn’t travel well. Atalanta should also pile the pressure on Roma boss Claudio Ranieri by consigning them to a fourth home defeat of the season.
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