Matchday 14 of the 2024/25 Spanish La Liga season sees league leaders Barcelona tackle a formidable test of their title prospects at Celta Vigo. Meanwhile, Osasuna and Villarreal face off in the battle to keep pace with Atletico Madrid in the top four. This week’s five La Liga predictions are based on the latest form, data and expert knowledge to help you uncover value bets.
Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid are trying to keep pace with Barcelona and Real Madrid in third place. They are averaging two points per game, which is quite an achievement. Their 2.33 points per game average at home makes them a formidable opponent for a Deportivo Alaves side sitting in 15th place.
Alaves have relied heavily on their home form to keep their heads above the relegation zone so far this season. They’ve picked up ten points from six home games and just three points from seven away games. Additionally, Atleti have lost just once all season, conceding just seven goals in 13 games.
Real Betis, unbeaten in their last seven competitive games, travel to face bottom club Valencia. However, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four fixtures. Betis’ away form has been inconsistent at best, earning six points from six games, and drawing half of their road games.
Valencia have just one win to their name all season, with five points from five games at the Mestalla.They’ve been buoyed by a couple of gritty draws at Leganes and Getafe in recent weeks. They will be hoping to stop Betis in their tracks and keep tabs on their relegation rivals in the process.
It’s no surprise that Girona’s 2024/25 season has been filled with inconsistency. The team is playing in its first Champions League in the club’s history. The squad is having to find new ways to cope with midweek European games and demanding La Liga games at the weekend.
After back-to-back league wins over Leganes and Getafe, Girona are showing signs of finding their feet again. The same cannot be said for Espanyol, who’ve lost six of their last seven La Liga games.
They’ve averaged just 0.17 points per game away this season, conceding four goals apiece in their trips to Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, and three goals at Barcelona. Girona couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to help maintain their recent form.
Barcelona’s blistering start to the 2024/25 La Liga season was derailed somewhat by a 1-0 defeat to Real Sociedad before the international break. Barca’s two league defeats have come away from the Nou Camp, so they could be vulnerable again this weekend as they travel to a Celta Vigo side, who enjoy their home comforts.
In addition, Celta are averaging 1.86 points per game in front of their own supporters. This performance contradicts their 11th place standing in La Liga, but their away form is the root cause of their inconsistent results.
Celta concede just one goal per game at home, compared with 2.50 goals conceded per game away. They beat Barca 2-1 at home in June 2023 and secured a 3-3 home draw in November 2021, indicating that Celta have the capability to hand Barca another setback in consecutive matches.
On paper, this looks to be the game to watch on Matchday 14 of the 2024/25 La Liga campaign. Fifth-placed Osasuna will face off against fourth-placed Villarreal, putting Osasuna’s strong home record and Villarreal’s impressive away performance to the test.
Osasuna have a 71% win rate at home this term, while Villarreal have a 67% win rate away from home. Both teams concede just 1.14 and 1.17 goals per game respectively, but the head-to-head history is in the visitors’ favour.
Villarreal have won ten of their last 22 competitive matches and, given there’s less disparity between their home and away form, we think they are the more rounded team at this point of the season.
In summary, our La Liga predictions for Matchweek 14 include a big away win for Villarreal in Pamplona, a frustrating draw for Barcelona at Celta Vigo, a hard-fought point for Valencia and straightforward home wins for Atletico Madrid and Girona.
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