Under the guidance of the new manager Marco Baroni, the Biancocelesti have evolved into a dynamic and compelling team.
Bettors considering placing their stakes on Lazio this campaign should closely examine the club’s current form, statistics, and tactics for informed decision-making.
Serie A Top 4 Finish
Odds
Lazio
Europa League Winner
Odds
Lazio
10.00 (each way: places 1-2)
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Lazio’s recent success stems from a well-executed summer overhaul.
Currently boasting the third-best attack in Serie A, Lazio have netted 24 goals—11 more than in the previous season under Maurizio Sarri—and boast the Europa League’s best attack with nine goals scored.
A strong midfield, anchored by Rovella and Guendouzi, offers stability and balance.
The duo excels in a double pivot system that suits their physical and dynamic style of play. This midfield configuration is tailored to a newfound emphasis on pace and energy—bolstered by additions like Nuno Tavares and Boulaye Dia, whose powerful athleticism brings a Premier League-style intensity to the team.
Left-back Nuno Tavares, on loan from Arsenal, has emerged with eight assists, making him the top provider alongside Raphinha in Europe’s top five leagues.
Baroni’s decision to deploy a two-striker system featuring Boulaye Dia and Castellanos has further fueled this offensive surge.
The duo’s synergy has been crucial in enhancing Lazio’s goal-scoring capabilities.
For instance, Castellanos has found scoring opportunities easier to come by thanks to Dia’s presence and technical skill, which alleviate pressure and create space for him. This tactical switch—adding one striker and subtracting one defender—underscores Baroni’s intent to unleash the attacking potential they have scarcely exploited in the past.
Lazio are currently averaging 14 shots per game in Serie A, which is a notable increase from last season’s 11.57 per game.
Moreover, Baroni’s ability to tap into the potential of veterans like Pedro and Vecino has paid off. Pedro’s adaptation to a central attacking midfield role has been pivotal as he stepped in to fill the gap left by Luis Alberto and Felipe Anderson.
This positional evolution allows Pedro to contribute effectively—registering five goals and two assists so far—without the taxing demands of wing play.
Lazio’s results reflect their performances as they have amassed seven more points compared to the same stage last year. From a betting perspective, Lazio’s performance in the 1X2 market should intrigue seasoned bettors.
With a +15.9% Return on Investment (ROI) from their opening 11 league games, Lazio rank seventh in win profitability in Serie A.
This is not entirely new for the club, given it has often defied market expectations—yielding a profitable outcome in four of the past five seasons—and was notably profitable in the 2022/2023 season with a remarkable 40% ROI.
Currently, Lazio hold a 12.7% probability of finishing in the top four and a 48.1% chance of securing a top-six spot—positions they fiercely contest with teams like Fiorentina and city rivals Roma.
Betting enthusiasts should take note of these figures, suggesting a scenario where Lazio could exceed expectations. However, despite Lazio’s promising start, bettors must remain mindful of potential risks.
Our in-house prediction tool projects Lazio to finish seventh, as they did last season, but with a total of 64 points—three more than last season.
Based on this data, Baroni’s side would average 1.55 points per game from now on, indicating a significant regression to the mean.
Defensive frailties remain a concern, with the team keeping just one clean sheet in Serie A, although their expected goals against (xGA) data indicates they have conceded almost three more goals than expected (2.76).
Additionally, the squad’s depth may be tested as the season progresses, with injuries likely to strain resources. The intense playing style, while advantageous, might lead to wear and tear among key players—a factor to consider when forecasting future outcomes.
While the ROI from the opening phase of the season may level out, the trend indicates Lazio’s potential to maintain a competitive edge and defy bookmaker projections.