Their first league loss since December 2023 creates a new landscape for Pep Guardiola’s squad, confronting them with unique challenges and scrutiny over defensive solidity.
However, a statistical approach to City’s prospects reveals a strategic pathway for betting on their success.
Premier League Outright Winner
Odds (each way: places 2)
Manchester City
Liverpool
Premier League: Winner Without Manchester City
Odds
Liverpool
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Following last Wednesday’s exit from the League Cup, City have experienced consecutive defeats in all competitions for the first time since September 2023.
Yet, Premier League history illustrates that the end of an unbeaten run can sometimes set the stage for even greater achievements.
Arsenal’s record 49-game streak was snapped by Manchester United in 2004, and the Gunners ultimately failed to capture the title.
However, Liverpool bounced back from a defeat at Watford during the 2019-2020 season to finish as champions.
Similarly, Chelsea’s 40-match unbeaten run was halted at Old Trafford, but José Mourinho’s squad reacted with a ten-game winning streak, allowing only four goals and ultimately retaining the title in 2026.
These precedents hint that City’s current setback could pave the way for future triumph.
The current season’s dynamics bring both challenges and promise for Manchester City. Despite their recent loss, City hold a respectable 23 points from 10 games, just one point shy of their position at the same stage last season when they clinched the title.
However, advanced metrics like Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Points (xPTS) flag potential issues. City’s xPTS implies they should have only earned 18.82 points, pointing to an overperformance that could lead to even poorer results.
Their xGA (expected goals against) reveals weaknesses against top-10 teams, excluding Arsenal, who have defeated City both at home and away.
City’s defence raises concern, having conceded 11 goals—a tally only matched in the 2020/2021 season when they still claimed the title with an eight-point lead over Manchester United.
Their current Expected Goals Against (xGA) shows a worrying trend, now surpassing 1.0 per match under Guardiola for the first time.
City’s title chances largely depend on swift recoveries of key players like Kevin De Bruyne, John Stones, and Ruben Dias, along with Erling Haaland regaining his form. Their upcoming fixture against Liverpool on December 1 looms large, but may not be definitive.
Stats suggest this season’s victorious campaign might need fewer points than in the past, and that is due to an increased competition among teams.
Historically, 87.02 points (2.29 per game) have been enough to secure Premier League glory, but Guardiola’s tenure has raised the benchmark to 2.46 points per game.
Guided by Arne Slot, league leaders Liverpool are currently exceeding expectations with 25 points at an average of 2.50 per game, hinting at potential reversion to the mean.
Guardiola’s City have crossed the 90-point mark four times, establishing a lasting legacy of excellence. Their historic 100-point season in 2017-18, with only 14 points, showcases their potential.
Prior to the result in Bournemouth, City had collected 86 points over 32 matches, averaging 2.68 points per game—a rate which, maintained, could see them surpass 98 points, nearing the all-time record of 100 points they achieved in the 2017/2018 campaign.
Though Liverpool have breached 90 points three times in six years, it resulted in only one title win (in 2020), underscoring City’s pivotal role in elevating league standards.
Guardiola’s strategic acumen and Manchester City’s depth keep them firmly positioned as favourites in the title race. Their recent setback, while noteworthy, does not diminish their prospects for Premier League success.