The controversial energy-drink-funded club are unbeaten in the Bundesliga, and appear set to focus on domestic competitions in the months ahead.
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Defeats to Atletico Madrid, Juventus, and Liverpool put Leipzig in a difficult position in the Champions League. A deep run in Europe’s premier club competition seems unlikely, but that could be an unexpected advantage for those who have backed them in the Bundesliga.
Competing in both competitions, particularly with the additional Champions League matches this season, poses a significant challenge for their squad. Instead, they can focus their efforts on battling with Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and others in the upper rank of the Bundesliga.
Focusing on the Bundesliga is the right thing for Leipzig to do. Their schedule becomes significantly more challenging in the weeks ahead, with matches against Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Bayern lined up before Christmas.
Leipzig have stepped up in the biggest matches over the last couple of seasons, even though they haven’t been contending for the title. They have won three in a row against Dortmund, and two of their last three meetings at Signal Iduna Park. They have only one defeat in their last five matches against Bayern, and have already beaten Leverkusen this season.
Avoiding mistakes has been a real challenge for Rose’s team, yet they have mostly managed to do so this term. Five points ahead of Leverkusen and seven clear of Dortmund, they will be in a very strong position heading into 2025 if they can claim points from Dortmund and Bayern before Christmas.
It’s hard not to be tempted by Leipzig at 11.00 with Betway to win the Bundesliga. While their expected goal difference is only fifth, it’s the points on the board that count. They’ve gained an advantage from their opponents’ poor finishing, which can be attributed mainly to good fortune.
It’s worth noting that Péter Gulácsi’s exceptional success in outperforming his post-shot expected goals is indeed sustainable. The Hungarian has maintained this level of performance throughout an entire season before.
At the other end of the pitch, we’d like to see more chance creation before backing Leipzig. Lois Openda, Xavi Simons, Benjamin Sesko, and Antonio Nusa clearly possess the talent, and there’s no denying they have the firepower to sustain a challenge for the Bundesliga title.
If overtaking Bayern at odds of 11.00 doesn’t seem valuable to you, then the 4.33 odds to win the league excluding Bayern are certainly worth considering.
Leverkusen’s expected goals tally surpasses Leipzig’s, yet they have already failed to win five matches this season, and their squad will be further strained by Champions League commitments.
We expect Leipzig’s odds to shorten before the end of the year. This weekend’s clash with Dortmund is crucial, as a disappointing outcome could lead to longer odds across the board, potentially making a bet on a top-four finish appealing.
Die Roten Bullen are the team to watch in Bundesliga outright markets this season. It might not be a replica of Leverkusen’s astonishing 2023-24 season, but Leipzig are poised for another stellar campaign. With the weaknesses Bayern have displayed under Vincent Kompany, the title is definitely within reach.