Despite the unfavourable scoreline, the performance itself was cause for optimism. Manager Russell Martin can draw inspiration from his team’s strategic depth, a sentiment surprisingly echoed by City’s own Pep Guardiola.
Let’s delve into the data and statistics that stir optimism for both Southampton fans and bettors who are considering backing the Hampshire team.
To be relegated
Not to be relegated
To finish bottom
Southampton vs Everton
Odds
Southampton or Draw
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
In his post-match interview, Guardiola himself suggested that he could learn some tactical nuances from Martin’s setup: “We were not sloppy, we were not flat, but we struggled to regain the ball because they are really good,” admitted the City boss.
Recognition from one of football’s most renowned tacticians highlights the quality Southampton has been showcasing.
Southampton impressively achieved over 90% passing accuracy in Manchester City’s half, a rare feat for visiting teams since last season. Completing 434 passes, second only to Brighton’s 506 at the Etihad in October 2023, Martin’s squad showed tactical discipline and courage. This strong foundation can disrupt even the most organised teams and is key to building future successes.
Despite the outcome, Southampton’s trip to the Etihad featured several small victories.
Adam Lallana’s return brought a sense of leadership and tactical intelligence vital for facing the challenges of relegation battles The 36-year-old midfielder disrupted City’s midfield flow, showcasing his tactical insight and ability to rally his teammates, giving fans a hopeful glimpse of the team’s potential at full strength.
Although outclassed, with Manchester City amassing an Expected Goals (xG) of 2.95 against Southampton’s modest 0.21, the Saints were certainly not overwhelmed.
This highlights Southampton’s ability to adhere to their game plan, using a defensive strategy with five defenders that, on most days, could secure vital points in their fight for survival.
Although all three newly-promoted sides were relegated last season, stats suggest Southampton have reason for hope.
Historically, a third of the 24 teams that began the season without a win in their first nine games have managed to survive in the Premier League.
Bournemouth managed to stay up last season, and Newcastle did the same in 2021/2022. Southampton have also been in this position before, surviving on the final day of the 1998-99 season. These examples provide further reason to believe that, despite their current winless streak of 22 Premier League games, brighter days lie ahead for The Saints.
Moreover teams that have performed well—either by losing narrowly or earning a draw—against Manchester City have demonstrated tactical acumen and mental resilience, using the experience to achieve positive results in the following game.
This season five out of seven teams (Chelsea, Ipswich, West Ham, Arsenal, and Newcastle) have benefited from the ‘Manchester City effect,’ either drawing or winning their game after facing Pep’s side.
A similar pattern has emerged over the last two Premier League seasons, with teams performing well against City achieving 21 wins (54%) and six draws (15%) in 39 matches.
With an xPTS (expected points) tally placing them outside the bottom three, Southampton could anticipate gaining points in the next two fixtures: Everton at St Mary’s Stadium and Wolverhampton away.
On both occasions, Martin’s men are likely to dominate possession, as they are currently sixth in the Premier League for average ball retention and fifth for both progressive carrying distance and ball carries in the attacking third.
To turn possession into points, the Saints need to enhance their shot-creation efforts, as they currently rank fourth from the bottom in the league for this metric.
Defensively, Southampton’s possession style often results in goal-scoring chances for opponents, as they currently rank high in conceding such opportunities.