The league leaders can clinch a narrow 1-0 home win to up the ante on Ligue 1 title holders, PSG.
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Our Monaco vs Lille Predictions indicate a closely contested match, with Ligue 1’s early pace-setters, Monaco, hosting Lille on Friday night as they aim to extend their lead over defending champions PSG.
Monaco are unbeaten in their opening seven 2024/25 Ligue 1 fixtures. They’ve won three and drawn one of their four home games. However, they also showcased that Stade Louis II is a stronghold with their recent Champions League win against ten-man Barcelona.
The hosts will be without their number-one striker, Folarin Balogun, who is sidelined for a few weeks with a muscle injury. Either Breel Embolo or Wissam Ben Yedder will likely deputise on Friday night.
Lille have also enjoyed a solid start to the campaign but have lost twice in their seven Ligue 1 games. However, they will be, no doubt, buoyed by their recent Champions League victory over Real Madrid.
With two wins and a defeat away from home, Lille’s defeat came to 13th-placed Saint-Etienne, which suggests they are prone to underperforming on the road.
The probable lineup for Monaco in 3-4-2-1:
Kohn; Singo, Mawissa, Kehrer, Vanderson, Ouattara, Camara, Zakaria, Minamino, Ben Seghir, Embolo
The probable of lineup for Lille in 4-2-3-1:
Chevalier; Meunier, Gudmundsson, Diakite, Alexsandro, Andre, Andre Gomes, Zhegrova, Sahraoui, Angel Gomes, David
Firstly, it should be noted how well Monaco have started the season. Six wins and one draw have seen Monaco open up a two-point lead over defending champions PSG. They will surely be keen to make another statement of intent against fifth-placed Lille.
Although Lille have conceded just 0.33 goals per game on their travels so far this season, their xGA sits at almost three times that figure (0.92). This suggests they might have relied on luck to maintain clean sheets in away games.
Monaco defeated Lille 1-0 on home soil at the back end of the 2023/24 season in April, which suggests they are more than capable of getting a positive result, this time around.
The only uncertainty is the absence of key striker Folarin Balogun, who is sidelined due to a muscle injury. There will be high expectations for his probable replacement, Breel Embolo, to take charge of the attack.
In our Monaco vs Lille Predictions, this first-meets-fifth contest is shaping up to be more of a tight, cagey match rather than an open, expansive game, according to the data for matches at Stade Louis II.
Monaco have conceded just 0.75 goals per home game, while Lille have conceded 0.33 goals per away game, so far this term. Furthermore, Lille have kept a clean sheet in two-thirds (67%) of their away games this season.
In addition, just 25% of Monaco’s home games have ended with three or more goals scored, and similarly, 33% of Lille’s away games have featured three or more goals. With Folarin Balogun also sidelined for Monaco, this takes some firepower out of the hosts’ arsenal. Backing Under 2.5 Goals at odds against feels like exceptional value to us.
Another reason why we’re backing Monaco to get the win is that they’re highly likely to open the scoring on Friday night. The Red and Whites have scored first in six of their seven Ligue 1 games so far this campaign.
In addition, 42% of their goals scored so far this season have come inside the opening 30 minutes, compared with just 23% of Lille’s goals scored.
It’s also worth noting that the Monegasques have a more clinical shot-to-goal conversion rate, with 15% of their shots on target ending in goals compared with 12% for the visitors.