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Juventus should have enough to earn a narrow 1-0 win over Genoa.
Juventus head to Genoa on Saturday as the top teams in Serie A jostle for position.
Genoa finished firmly in mid-table last season, amassing a total of 49 points. Alberto Gilardino, a World Cup winner as a player, remains in charge of the team and hopes to build on what was a steady season.
Il Grifone have five points after five matches of the current campaign. They suffered defeat at the hands of Unione Venezia last weekend, but have already shown they can slug it out with the big boys by drawing 2-2 at home to Inter Milan.
The Old Lady secured a return to the Champions League by finishing third last season, but there have been wholesale changes at the club since then. Massimiliano Allegri was dismissed following his antics in the Italian Cup Final. Juve are now looking to play a more possession-based style.
Thiago Motta was the man they drafted in to implement a new brand of football. Motta steered Bologna to a 5th-place finish last season and he has made an unbeaten start to life in Turin. Juventus are just two points off top coming into matchday six.
The probable lineup for Genoa in the “system of play.”
Gollini; De Winter, Bani, Vasuez; Sabelli, Pinamonti, Badelj, Frendrup, Martin; Ekuban, Vitinha
The probable lineup for Juventus in the “system of play.”
Di Gregorio; Savona, Kalulu, Bremer, Cambiaso; Thuram, Locatelli, Koopmeiners; Gonzalez, Yildiz, Vlahovic
Juventus have drawn their last three league matches 0-0. They have struggled to break down their opponents, with Thiago Motta looking to change the Old Lady’s style. However, the xG suggests that Juve had the better of both Roma and Empoli, so we are backing them to win here.
The lack of clear-cut chances is an issue, but one that this talented Juventus squad is capable of addressing. A goal might be enough for the away side to win this one thanks to Motta’s solid defence.
Genoa have won just one of their last nine head-to-heads with Juventus. Over that period, they have scored an average of 0.89 fewer goals per game than their opponents.
Allegri’s Juventus were criticised for being overly defensive at times. The previous manager was happy to allow the opposition to retain the ball and hit them on the break. Motta’s Juve have been averaging 60% possession thus far, but they remain defensively solid.
Juve are yet to concede a goal in Serie A. They drew 0-0 with Napoli last weekend, restricting Antonio Conte’s side to an xG of just 0.31. With an average of 0.36 per game, the Old Lady have the lowest xGA in the league by some distance. Fiorentina have the second lowest with 1.09.
With goals at a premium in Juventus matches, we are also tipping under 2.5 goals in the match.
Genoa matches have seen an average of 2.77 goals per game so far this season, but goals have been harder to come by in their recent matches against Juventus. The last time these teams squared off, the game finished 0-0. Under 2.5 goals has won in three of the last four head-to-heads.
Juventus’ away matches in Serie A since the start of last season have seen 2.43 goals on average. With no goals in their last three league outings, under 2.5 goals looks like a good bet here.