AC Milan should be expected to beat Lecce with a 2-1 scoreline.
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As AC Milan prepare to host Lecce at the San Siro, the Rossoneri find themselves buoyed by their recent derby triumph against Inter Milan.
This match is more than just a battle for three points; it’s a pivotal moment for both teams, each facing different yet equally demanding expectations.
In the week leading up to the derby, AC Milan were at a crossroads. Paulo Fonseca, the Rossoneri’s boss, conducted a crucial face-to-face meeting with his players. “We talked a lot, almost an hour and a half,” Fonseca revealed.
The emphasis was on the team’s strengths, positive plays, and tactical acumen rather than their shortcomings. This session appears to have rekindled a sense of unity and purpose within the squad that won the first derby after six straight defeats.
On the other side, Lecce arrive at this clash licking their wounds after a frustrating draw with Parma. Despite a two-goal lead, they were pegged back by two stoppage-time goals, squandering a near-certain victory. The Salentini have already been beaten by Inter in Milan on matchday two. Midweek, they were knocked out of the Coppa Italia by the Serie B side Sassuolo, who inflicted them with a 2-0 defeat at the ‘Via del Mare’.
The probable lineup for AC Milan in the “system of play.”
AC Milan (4-4-2): Maignan; Emerson Royal, Tomori, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Pulisic, Fofana, Reijnders, Leao; Morata, Abraham.
The probable lineup for Lecce in the “system of play.”
Lecce (4-2-3-1): Falcone; Pelmard, Baschirotto, Gaspar, Gallo; Ramadani, Pierret; Morente, Rebic, Dorgu; Krstovic.
After the 3-1 defeat against Liverpool in the Champions League, players like Matteo Gabbia and Alvaro Morata publicly demonstrated their allegiance to Fonseca.
Gabbia’s striking declaration, “We will follow Fonseca till death,” along with his dramatic late goal against Inter, and Morata’s celebratory embrace of his coach, illustrate the renewed esprit de corps. This revitalised morale could be pivotal as Milan aim for a consistent run of form.
Moreover, individual performances have been vital: Christian Pulisic has consistently been a standout, significantly contributing to Milan’s offensive moves. He’s been directly involved in 31 goals since the start of last season.
The forward momentum he brings is invaluable, especially as the team adjusts to Fonseca’s tactical visions, including the recently deployed and effective 4-2-4 formation used against Inter.
After a tricky start to the season, with two defeats in a row against Atalanta and Inter, Lecce are currently unbeaten in the last three matches. They managed to keep two clean sheets, highlighting a squad with resilience and fight. Lecce’s coach, Andrea Gotti, employs a flexible, combative style, often deploying a 4-2-3-1 formation designed to balance defensive solidity with offensive pressure.
However, the team’s recent Coppa Italia exit at the hands of Serie B side Sassuolo has revealed vulnerabilities, particularly in maintaining concentration and composure during crucial moments.
The visitors have managed just two wins in their last 21 Serie A away matches and lost to nil in all of their away games against top-5 teams last season.
Historically, Milan have dominated this fixture. The Rossoneri have avoided defeat in 24 of their last 24 games against Lecce, scoring on average 2.3 goals per game. San Siro has largely been an unconquerable fortress for the visitors, who have only once (2-1 in October 1997) left victorious from this iconic venue.
Statistically, Milan’s offensive prowess is underlined by their 91 goals against Lecce’s 40 in previous meetings, suggesting a strong likelihood for Milan to maintain their attacking edge.
Furthermore, the Rossoneri boast a strong record in front of their crowd, having avoided defeat in 15 of their previous 16 games, scoring in each of these matches (37 goals in total, 2.3 per game). Expect Fonseca to stick with his dynamic offensive setup, utilising the dual-striker system of Morata and Abraham, complemented by fast transitions from wings dominated by Pulisic and Leao.
The midfield duo of Reijnders and Fofana will be crucial in shielding the defence and initiating attacks.
Given Milan’s recent goalscoring trends and their historical dominance, pairing a win with under 3.5 goals provides a pragmatic betting angle. Despite their attacking prowess, Milan often maintain a balance that avoids high-scoring affairs.