We predict Tottenham will beat Qarabag 3-1.
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Tottenham host Qarabag on matchday one of the 2024-25 Europa League on Thursday night.
Coming off an emphatic win over Brentford at the weekend, Tottenham are looking to kick-start their season. They lost consecutive matches either side of the international break and narrowly avoided a League Cup upset away to Coventry.
Ange Postecoglou only has a couple of absentees. Cristian Romero is suspended after a red card back in March, and Richarlison is sidelined through injury. The latter has played just 25 minutes so far this season after being linked with a move away from the club all summer.
Winners of three straight matches since losing the second leg of their playoff tie to Dinamo Zagreb, Qarabag are top of the Azerbaijan Premier League. This is the third consecutive season Qarabag have competed in the Europa League.
A group-stage exit two seasons ago was followed by a round of 16 appearance last time around. They gave Bayer Leverkusen a competitive tie, which bodes well for their chances in this year’s competition. It couldn’t be a much trickier start for The Horsemen, however.
Tottenham probable XI:
Vicario, Gray, Dragusin, Davies, Udogie; Sarr, Bissouma, Bergvall; Johnson, Solanke, Werner.
Qarabag probable XI:
Kochalski; Silva, Huseynov, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Isaev, Romao; Bayramov, Andrade, Zoubir; Juninho.
Both teams to score paid out in all four of Qarabag’s Europa League knockout matches last season. Since the start of 2023-24, Tottenham have seen BTTS land in 30 out of 43 Premier League fixtures.
While Qarabag failed to score over two legs against Dinamo Zagreb, their attack has found the net at least once against Nantes, Freiburg, Bayer Leverkusen, and Braga over the last three seasons.
We are never going to be confident backing Tottenham to keep a clean sheet. Their only shutout this season was against lowly Everton.
Brennan Johnson has been the subject of criticism early this season. He has delivered for Spurs recently, though, with goals against Coventry and Brentford. He’s taken 12 shots over his last three appearances.
Ange Postecoglou may well give Johnson the start here in an effort to rebuild his confidence. The former Nottingham Forest man was a constant threat at the weekend, and he will undoubtedly get into some good attacking positions on Thursday.
Given Johnson’s form, and with Postecoglou expected to rest Heung-min Son, we like the value here.
We can’t look past a comfortable Tottenham win on Thursday night. Qarabag have notched some impressive results in Europe over the last couple of years, but the talent mismatch is too big to overcome here.
Both of Tottenham’s league wins this season have cleared this goals line. Qarabag conceded nine goals across their last four matches in Champions League qualifying and conceded 10 over their four Europa League knockout fixtures last season.
It’s going to be a fun night for the Tottenham attack.