Kylian Mbappe was the top scorer in Ligue 1 for the past five seasons. His departure from French soil provides an opportunity for the league’s other attackers to claim the Golden Boot. PSG are still clear favourites to win the title but the betting market for top scorer is far more open.
Bradley Barcola has stepped up to fill the void left by Mbappe, but plenty of players are queuing up behind him in what looks to be an intriguing race to become the league’s top scorer.
Ligue 1 Outright Market
Odds
Bradley Barcola
Masons Greenwood
Jonathan David
Evann Guessand
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola has big shoes to fill coming into the season. He has replaced Kylian Mbappe as PSG’s starting left winger and has certainly delivered thus far. Like his predecessor, Barcola enjoys cutting in from the left and shooting on his favoured right foot. He has done this to devastating effect of late.
Barcola has scored 10 goals in 12 appearances this season. He boasts an incredible scoring rate of a goal every 82.6 minutes of league action.
The young Frenchman certainly benefits from being part of the league’s strongest attack. PSG are netting three goals per game on average. Nevertheless, Bradley’s underlying numbers are strong. He has a non-penalty xG of 0.44 per 90 minutes played over the last 12 months.
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood was offered the chance to resurrect his career by Getafe but he has gone up a level since moving to Marseille in the summer. The former Manchester United attacker is exceptional with both feet and continues to display his finishing ability in Ligue 1.
Greenwood has scored the second most goals in the division with eight. He has significantly overperformed his xG by 4.18, more than any other player in the French top flight. Marseille are also drastically overperforming the underlying metrics. xPTS has them 10th in the league. This is unlikely to continue so Mason may not be the best choice to finish as the league’s top scorer.
Jonathan David
The Lille Striker netted 19 goals last season, which meant he was tied with Alexandre Lacazette as the second-top scorer in the division. Jonathan David’s most prolific season in Ligue 1 was the 2022/23 campaign in which he scored 24 goals. He finished five goals behind Mbappe on that occasion but is this finally the season where he snatches the award?
David has the third-highest xG in the top tier of French football with 6.26, suggesting Lille are doing a great job of creating opportunities for their striker. The Canadian is slightly overperforming his xG but he has shown he can be clinical over a long period. Jonathan is averaging 0.15 more non-penalty goals than non-penalty xG per 90 minutes played over the last 12 months.
Evann Guessand
Guessand scored just six league goals for Nice throughout last season so it’s surprising to see him fighting it out at the top of the scoring charts after 12 matches of the current campaign. Evann is just 23 and could emerge as a top striker.
Evann’s numbers for the current season are certainly impressive. He has scored six goals from an xG of just 4.66. Guessand’s tall frame and ability to win physical duels with opposition defenders make him a huge asset. He is also very good at running with the ball at his feet.